Analyst: ‘Dull’ Market Dampens Hopes for Altcoin Season

The crypto market lacks the volatility needed for an altcoin season, says Gemini's Saad Ahmed.

The cryptocurrency market lacks the volatility needed to trigger a full-fledged altcoin season, according to Saad Ahmed, head of the Asia-Pacific division of the Gemini exchange, in an interview with DL News.

He noted that the platform no longer sees the previous excitement from retail traders, which was once the main driver of growth for alternative coins.

“Investors used to lock in crazy profits, but we don’t see that now. Much of that retail frenzy was driven by this market feature, and now it’s gone,” the expert explained.

Previous bullish phases were marked by high volatility and traditionally began with a Bitcoin rally. After securing profits, traders would redistribute capital into riskier assets like Ethereum and Solana.

Now, things have changed: the market is dominated by institutional investors with “long-term horizons.” Their presence smooths out price fluctuations and slows the rotation of capital into altcoins.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen confirmed the trend:

“Traders dealing with alternative coins faced a terrible risk-reward ratio after the October 10-11 crash. Let’s be realistic — altcoin season won’t come in 2025 or 2026.”

Where Have the Retail Traders Gone?

Ahmed noted the flow of risk-prone retail traders’ capital into the stock market. The tool for this has been crypto treasuries (DAT) — public companies created specifically to accumulate digital assets, often using financial leverage.

Over the past year, shares of such firms have shown volatility comparable to high-risk crypto investments.

For example, shares of Cantor Equity Partners — a SPAC company that transformed into Bitcoin treasury Twenty One Capital after a merger — surged by about 500% following the announcement of its business transformation.

Shares of SharpLink Gaming, which announced a strategy to accumulate Ethereum in the summer, rose by 3800%.

However, the rapid rise was followed by a correction. Twenty One ended its debut session with a 20% drop. SharpLink is trading 60% below its peak values.

Despite the lack of retail excitement, interest in crypto assets remains high. However, it is primarily driven by institutional investors.

Experts have not ruled out the return of private traders to the market. However, they noted that until this happens, high volatility and the start of a classic altcoin season should not be expected.

Gemini to Enter Prediction Market

The Gemini crypto exchange has received a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch a regulated platform for placing bets on event outcomes.

We’ve just received a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license from the @CFTC which will allow Gemini to begin offering prediction markets to U.S. customers.

— Gemini (@Gemini) December 10, 2025

The new platform is called Gemini Titan. In the future, it may expand its offerings to include other derivative instruments, including futures, options, and perpetual contracts on cryptocurrencies.

The decision marked a strategic shift in the CFTC’s stance, which had previously been skeptical of prediction markets. In 2021, the Commission blocked Polymarket and for a long time restricted access for American users to Kalshi.

The situation changed after a court victory by the latter project and reshuffles in the agency’s leadership. Caroline Pham was appointed interim chair, whom Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss described as crypto-friendly.

Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket are the main players in the segment. In November, the combined turnover of the platforms approached $10 billion — the highest in their history.

Meanwhile, the crypto exchange Coinbase is preparing to enter the prediction market. At the end of November, similar plans were revealed by Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz.