CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. has issued a “conservative” forecast for the price of the leading cryptocurrency, predicting a rise to $160,000.
During each of the three major rallies, long-term holders (LTH) consistently built up their positions before strong growth.
The first time this happened was around $28K: the increase in LTH share relative to STH over 1-2 months set the stage for a breakout to $60K.
The second… pic.twitter.com/2sKWpUlnO5— Axel ?? Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 26, 2025
According to his observations, during the last three bullish phases, long-term holders (LTH) actively accumulated positions before the onset of strong growth.
This was first observed at the $28,000 level, noted Adler Jr. At that time, the increase in the share of LTH compared to STH over 1-2 months preceded a surge in Bitcoin’s price to $60,000.
The second similar accumulation occurred at the $60,000 mark during a consolidation phase and served as a catalyst for the move to $100,000.
“Currently, at the $100,000 mark, there is again a steady increase in the LTH/STH ratio. This stage may last 4-8 weeks. After this, similar to past cycles, a sharp upward reversal is possible,” the expert explained.
He added that “with a more restrained forecast” using a multiplier of 1.6, the target level for the next wave of growth is around $160,000.
HODL!
Amidst the sideways market, analysts at Santiment noted a decline in retail investor sentiment.
? With crypto moving sideways, retail optimism toward Bitcoin & Ethereum has died down a bit. Meanwhile, XRP sentiment is currently at a 17-day high, in terms of positive vs. negative commentary. This has happened after a $50M settlement between Ripple & the SEC was stalled. pic.twitter.com/zJctKgEiPf
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) June 27, 2025
On the other hand, the volume of illiquid supply of digital gold has increased from 13.9 million BTC to 14.37 million BTC since the beginning of the year, according to Glassnode data.
The number of coins in circulation is approximately 19,880,000. Thus, the share of illiquid supply is about ~72%.
This indicator represents the proportion of bitcoins held by participants with low on-chain activity. Primarily, these are long-term investors and cold wallet holders. Such coins are effectively removed from circulation, reducing the volume of assets available for trading and, consequently, potential selling pressure.
The trend towards increasing illiquid supply often reflects investor confidence in the future prospects of the leading cryptocurrency, as well as the popularity of the “safe haven” narrative and censorship-resistant store of value.
Earlier, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole examined a “Bullish Flag” pattern on the chart, indicating a potential rise to $140,000 and beyond.