Experts Weigh Odds of a Bitcoin Trend Reversal

Analysts weigh bitcoin’s reversal odds as $92,000 falters amid Fed–DoJ turmoil.

Crypto markets reacted to an escalating dispute between the Fed and the US Department of Justice. Analysts noted bitcoin’s attempts to hold above $92,000 and assessed the likelihood of a trend change.

A failed hedge

QCP Capital flagged a rally in gold and silver during the Asian trading session.

The move coincided with comments by Fed chair Jerome Powell. He said the US Department of Justice had threatened to bring criminal charges over testimony he delivered to Congress in June 2025, which he described as political retribution for the central bank’s refusal to align interest rates with President Donald Trump’s policy.

Investors saw a risk to central-bank independence and rotated into alternative stores of value. Bitcoin initially followed suit, attempting to act as a hedge against institutional threats.

However, the digital currency failed to hold above $92,000 and pared gains at the European open.

“The inability to capitalise on bullish narratives underscores the structural headwinds bitcoin has faced since ”October 10“. Optimism about a first-quarter breakout is fading,” QCP noted.

The firm also noted profit-taking and a shift in options-market positioning:

• traders cut long-dated call exposure (strikes at $98,000 and $100,000 expiring in January–February 2026);
• part of January $100,000 contracts was rolled to March 2026 with the strike raised to $125,000.

This suggests investors are pushing bullish bets further out, unconvinced of an imminent rally, the analysts said.

QCP warned volatility would persist this week. Markets await US inflation data on January 13. The following day, a US Supreme Court decision on tariffs is expected.

A reversal signal

A CryptoQuant analyst known as CryptoMe drew attention to the SOPR metric for short-term holders (STH-SOPR) attempting to hold above a key threshold, which could indicate a shift from bearish to bullish.

A New Hope: Trend Reversal… or Just a Fakeout?

“In our current situation, after 10 October, STH-SOPR tried for the first time this week to escape upward above 1.0.” – By @cryptometugce pic.twitter.com/Tq2IYw9Dxk

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 12, 2026

STH-SOPR gauges the profitability of coins that moved on-chain over the past 155 days. A reading below 1 indicates speculators are selling at a loss.

According to the analyst, since October 10 the metric has been in negative territory. Historically, the 1 level serves as firm resistance during downturns and as support in uptrends.

“If you look closely at the chart, the 1 level works like a ceiling in bear cycles: STH-SOPR cannot rise above it. In bull periods it serves as a floor. Exiting from below one is often used as a trend-reversal signal,” the analyst explained.

This week, for the first time in three months, the metric tried to break that resistance from below. However, CryptoMe stressed the signal is not yet confirmed.

There is a risk of a “fakeout” if it fails to hold above the threshold by the daily close. Even so, the attempt to retake the level after a long stall offers hope for a market recovery, the specialist said.

Retail fear

Despite bitcoin’s broader uptrend, retail investors continue to sell at a loss amid volatility fears, noted another CryptoQuant expert using the pseudonym G a a h.

Retail Investors Fear Short-Term Volatility as Bitcoin Continues Its Upward Trend

“Historically, this misalignment between rising prices and capitulating retail investors often marks areas of opportunity.” – By @gaah_im pic.twitter.com/2RcmrttcbK

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 12, 2026

In 2024–2025, bitcoin’s price rose structurally, setting higher local highs, the analyst said. Speculators’ behaviour, however, ran counter to that.

Late last year, sentiment neared “extreme fear”. SOPR dropped to 0.98—a level last seen in November 2022, when bitcoin traded around $16,000.

G a a h flagged several key trends:

• for the past 70 days, short-term holders have been realising losses;
• after the previous all-time high was broken, STH profit realisation turned downward;
• STH-SOPR below 1 signals extended corrections.

In such periods, unrealised losses become realised, intensifying selling pressure.

He concluded that this misalignment—rising prices alongside the capitulation of “weak hands”—has historically created attractive entry points. The current setup, he said, confirms the trend’s structural strength despite retail panic.

In December, an analyst using the moniker Woominkyu suggested that the leading cryptocurrency could shift into a bear phase.