Arthur Hayes Foresees Hyperliquid’s Dominance in Prediction Markets with HYPE

Hyperliquid's HYPE token is set to lead prediction markets, says Arthur Hayes.

The primary competitive edge of the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid in the prediction market sector will be its HYPE token. This view was shared by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in an interview with CoinDesk. 

According to him, users will not only trade bets on event outcomes but also directly participate in the platform’s economy through the native coin. This structurally distinguishes Hyperliquid from Kalshi and Polymarket.

“HIP-4 will take the lead due to the platform’s user base, low fees, and solid technical foundation. Holders of the native token will directly benefit from its activity,” the expert explained.

On Kalshi, a trader does not gain a share in the platform’s economy — they simply buy and sell contracts. The platform is regulated by the CFTC and remains without a tokenized incentive layer. 

Polymarket is preparing to launch its own token. In the Gate pre-market, perpetual contracts for POLY trade around $14 — this corresponds to an FDV of approximately $14 billion. For comparison, HYPE’s current figure exceeds $38 billion. 

Hyperliquid enters the market with a ready mechanism for redistributing value within its ecosystem, Hayes emphasized. 

Geography

Hayes also cited regulatory asymmetry as an additional factor.

Kalshi operates in the US under the supervision of the CFTC — for it, compliance is more important than tokenomics. Polymarket, after registering in the US, is tightening its legal framework and facing restrictions in Asia: the service is blocked or partially restricted in Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Japan.

Hyperliquid faces no such barriers. Its audience is initially skewed towards Asian traders — where retail and semi-institutional event betting has long been a significant part of the market.

Active Testing 

In March, the leading perp-DEX deployed the HIP-4 protocol with prediction markets in the testnet. Betting on event outcomes will become an additional layer within the already existing Hyperliquid ecosystem.

Users will be able to open positions on event outcomes just as they currently trade perpetual contracts. For now, during testing, clients have access to binary options on HyperCore’s base prices. 

The new feature will be based on so-called outcome tokens. In April, the platform introduced a fee structure for these assets: opening a position will be free, with fees charged only upon closing or settling a trade.

Back in April, a group of scholars from the London Business School and Yale University analyzed transactions on Polymarket from 2023 to 2025. The authors concluded that the platform’s prediction accuracy is ensured by an “informed minority,” rather than the “wisdom of the crowd.”