Bitcoin holds at $75,000 after US–Iran ceasefire collapses

Bitcoin holds near $75,000 as US–Iran tensions flare over the Strait of Hormuz.

On April 20, bitcoin hovered around $75,000: down 0.2% on the day but up 6.3% over the week. Over the weekend the US seized an Iranian vessel, and Tehran reasserted control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ether slipped 1% to $2300. Among the top ten cryptocurrencies by market value, only HYPE fell markedly, down 4.7%. The rest shed less than 1%.

Crypto-market liquidations reached $419 million over the past 24 hours, with $218 million from long positions.

Traditional markets reacted more sharply to the latest Middle East escalation. Brent crude added 5% to $95, while WTI recovered to $87 per barrel.

Key European indices opened lower.

Gold rose 0.4% to $4791 per ounce. The dollar index edged down 0.03%.

A shifting narrative

On April 17, Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz “fully open”. Elsewhere, most coins lost less than 1%.

By April 19 the situation had flipped: US president Donald Trump threatened to destroy all power stations and bridges in Iran if talks fail. The other side signalled it could skip a second negotiation round while the United States maintains a naval blockade.

This is the fourth Middle East–related shock that crypto has weathered relatively calmly, analysts at CoinDesk noted. Each fresh escalation elicits a more muted response from bitcoin, even as oil and equities continue to react sharply.

Experts reckon digital-asset markets have already priced in the main risks, while traditional markets are still catching up.

QCP noted that volatility remains subdued. Rather than sharp flare-ups, investors are betting on a longer grind — periodic disruptions in the strait alternating with political rhetoric and de-escalation.

“In other words, the market is pricing not the intensity but the duration of the war, which may drag on but remain within its current bounds,” they explained.

Analysts also said the balance between upside bets and downside protection changed little over the week — a sign the market has yet to pick a direction.

Beyond the regional backdrop, investors are awaiting remarks from Kevin Warsh — a candidate to chair the Fed, QCP stressed.

“Investors are focused on his views on rates and the economy. Warsh’s comments could be a short-term catalyst — especially if they reinforce expectations of policy easing amid persistent geopolitical risks,” the experts concluded.

What next

Bitcoin has established itself above the realized price of the most price-sensitive short-term holders — those who entered the market one week to one month ago. Their break-even sits around $69,400, wrote the analyst known as Darkfost.

📊 Bitcoin is now establishing itself above the realized price of the most price-sensitive Short-Term Holders cohort (1w-1m), around ~$69 400.

This helps restore some confidence among participants who entered the market recently.

💥 BTC is now testing the realized price of the… pic.twitter.com/9xXcgzg81T

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) April 20, 2026

He argues this helps restore confidence among recent entrants and lowers the odds of a quick capitulation.

The leading cryptocurrency is now testing the realized price of one‑to‑three‑month holders at roughly $74,900. They suffered most from the correction that began in October 2025.

“These investors had only one chance to exit — in January 2025, when the price first touched their break-even. Now comes a second test. The key question: will they hold or start selling,” Darkfost wrote.

If that level is cleared and the market holds above it, pressure from short‑term holders should ease markedly. That would give digital gold room to push toward the next important zone.

The cost basis of the earlier short‑term cohort (three to six months) is higher — around $92,000. The expert expects this to be the final resistance, after which most market participants would be back in profit.

Bitcoin has also formed a new price gap on the CME at $77,400, noted the trader known as Ash Crypto.

$BTC has formed a new CME gap around the $77,400 level.

Since Q4 2025, Bitcoin has filled 90% of its CME gaps within a week.

If this happens again, $1.6 billion worth of short positions will get liquidated. pic.twitter.com/1NF6Y4QNvl

— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) April 20, 2026

Since the fourth quarter of last year, bitcoin has closed 90% of such gaps within a week. If the pattern repeats, roughly $1.6 billion in short positions would be liquidated, adding momentum to the upside, the expert said.

MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe added that bitcoin staged a relatively strong rebound, despite markets typically turning risk‑off ahead of the US open.

Relatively strong bounce upwards on $BTC on Monday, as markets tend to go risk-off prior to the open.

Gold has gone down, so no attached risk. #Bitcoin bouncing upwards, and given that there’s still a gap to $77.3K, I would assume we’re going to see new highs this week. pic.twitter.com/NcSeP56Vug

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) April 20, 2026

He also pointed to gold’s weak performance, which in his view signals no pronounced flight to safety.

Against that backdrop, van de Poppe floated the prospect of fresh local highs this week. He cited $77,300 as bitcoin’s next key level.

During the week of April 13–17, crypto funds attracted $1.4 billion, marking a recovery in investor sentiment.