The distribution of bitcoin options set to expire four days after the US presidential elections reveals optimistic market expectations. This is reported by CoinDesk, citing a report from Wintermute.
The opportunity to open these positions on Deribit emerged a month ago, with volumes already reaching $345.83 million.
The put/call ratio stands at approximately 2:1, indicating a majority bet on the rise of the underlying asset’s price.
“These election-timed contracts allow investors to capitalize on increased interest by speculating on how the event might impact crypto markets. The current put/call ratio indicates optimistic sentiment,” noted Wintermute.
The most popular position is a call option with a strike price of $80,000, with a total volume exceeding $39 million. Overall, open interest is primarily concentrated in the $70,000-140,000 range, which may signal traders’ expectations of new highs during this period.
Experts also noted the same $39 million in put options at a price of $45,000.
“The concentration of open interest in positions with strikes around $80,000 and $100,000 indicates market participants’ readiness for potential bitcoin growth, while the presence of put contracts with a lower strike price of $45,000 suggests a certain level of hedging or protection against a decline,” they believe.
Industry Expectations
Much of the crypto industry hopes for the return of Republican Donald Trump to the presidency. The politician has repeatedly expressed support for digital assets and mining.
He opened cryptocurrency donations for his campaign, attracting $1 million from notable industry figures like the Winklevoss twins and Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell.
Speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, Trump promised to end the authorities’ war on cryptocurrencies if elected. During the event, he raised over $20 million for his campaign fund.
Following Joe Biden’s exit from the race, current Vice President Kamala Harris replaced him. Some industry players, like billionaire Mark Cuban, suggested that the new Democratic candidate might be “much more open” to cryptocurrencies.
Her supporters in the industry launched the Crypto for Harris campaign to counter Trump’s appeals to crypto investors. However, Harris’s absence from the initiative’s virtual event raised doubts about her potential support for the industry.
Moreover, Washington Reporter, citing its own sources, reported that if elected, she might appoint SEC head Gary Gensler as Treasury Secretary. He is one of the most unpopular officials in the Biden administration due to his strict regulatory policies. However, even some of Trump’s supporters in the industry viewed the news with skepticism.
OK, multiple Dems contacted me to say the “Gensler as Treasury Secretary” rumor is false. One thinks the source of the rumor is Gensler himself — (thinks he planted it just to mess with all of us…that sounds about right TBH)?♀️ https://t.co/nTRwq1Gafu
— Caitlin Long ?⚡️? (@CaitlinLong_) August 19, 2024
According to influential Republican Congressman Tom Emmer, the Treasury under Harris could be led by Senator Elizabeth Warren. She is known as an uncompromising critic of cryptocurrencies.
The community also notes that the Democratic candidate has yet to publicly state her position on digital assets, which are absent from her campaign platform. Journalists from NBC News noted that the document was developed “under Biden” and received approval just days before the president announced his withdrawal from the electoral campaign.
Investment Director of Bitwise Matt Hougan concluded that the industry’s fate does not depend on politicians’ attitudes. A similar opinion was expressed by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.