In the hypothetical scenario of a quantum attack on Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallets, “old whales” would protect the market, according to analyst Willy Woo.
Many OGs would be in to buy the flash crash.
BTC network would survive, most coins are not immediately vulnerable.
However 4M coins in P2PK addresses (including Satoshi’s) have their public keys in the open and are vulnerable.
->Many year shakeout.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) December 14, 2025
The discussion was sparked by a post from YouTuber Josh Otten, who published a chart modeling a crash of the first cryptocurrency to $3. According to him, such a scenario is possible if a quantum computer hacks Nakamoto’s wallet, steals 1 million BTC, and triggers a market collapse through mass selling.
Yes. If a functional Quantum Computer is built, it could use Shor’s algorithm to crack the encryption guarding Bitcoin’s earliest wallets. This would expose the private keys to Satoshi Nakamoto’s fortune, likely crashing the market and destroying trust in the whole system. https://t.co/xrXAxWz6D0
— Josh Otten (@ordinarytings) December 13, 2025
Woo countered, noting that many long-term investors “would buy bitcoin at a low price.” In his view, the network would continue to operate as most coins are protected from such an attack.
However, he added that about 4 million BTC are at risk, including Satoshi’s assets.
The vulnerable funds are stored in outdated P2PK addresses, which reveal the full public key on the blockchain when a transaction is made. This makes them a target for quantum computers, which could theoretically compute the private key.
Modern wallet types offer better protection against quantum threats. Their key advantage is that the public key is not revealed in the distributed ledger until a transaction is made.
Not Everyone Agrees
Woo’s assessment sparked debate within the crypto community. A Bitcoin enthusiast using the pseudonym Dave W challenged the assumption that the owner of a quantum computer would crash the market.
In his opinion, hackers would likely aim to maximize profit and opt for a slow sell-off. He compared this scenario to unlocking 20% of coins in circulation, which is not actually catastrophic.
WHY assume whoever builds a quantum computer that can crack old wallets would be SELF DESTRUCTIVE???
It is ABSURD to think that they would go through the expense to crash the price.
MUCH, MUCH more likely, they would move coins to hundreds or thousands of new wallets & sell the…
— Dave W (@daveweisberger1) December 14, 2025
Woo acknowledged the complexity of the topic but introduced the factor of geopolitics and the idea of a targeted attack. He noted that if a Western power were the first to act, the seizure of coins would be considered theft, as keys alone do not confirm ownership from a legal standpoint.
The expert also considered the possibility of creating a specialized quantum computer:
“There is a possibility of creating a quantum computer one or two generations behind the cutting edge, but with an optimized scheme specifically targeting Bitcoin signatures… Something like this could be achieved by a less-funded rogue actor.”
He explained that the best strategy for such a rogue actor seeking maximum profit would not be a direct coin dump but rather using short positions in futures markets. The hacker could capitalize on a sharp but short-term price drop.
In conclusion, Woo emphasized that regardless of the attack scenario, the network would endure. He compared it to the “block size war”. Afterward, old investors returned, leading to a market surge in 2017.
Earlier, the expert suggested moving bitcoins from old wallets to SegWit addresses and keeping them there for about seven years. In his view, the threat will not become real before 2030.
Back in November, Bitcoin maximalist Adam Back called the threat from quantum computing exaggerated.