Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Trajectory: Awaiting a New Peak

July 29 marked 100 days since the fourth halving of the reward for miners in the network of the first cryptocurrency. Historically, Bitcoin has begun its ascent to ATH after this period, yet the market has not witnessed significant changes thus far. 

According to André Dragosch, Head of Research at ETC Group, the positive effects of the halving will soon become apparent. 

GM ☕️

Today marks exactly 100 days after the #Bitcoin Halving event on the 20th of April.

The market tends to have a short memory but the Halving induced supply deficit should just start take effect from now on.

ACCELERATE. pic.twitter.com/c0K3XXhXRv

— André Dragosch | Bitcoin & Macro ⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) July 29, 2024

“The market tends to have a short memory, but the supply deficit caused by the halving should start to take effect right now,” he stated. 

Dragosch reached this conclusion after analyzing historical data before and after the three previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020. According to his data, Bitcoin’s price began to rise 100 days post-event and peaked after another 400 days. 

In the first instance, “T-values” exceed 2%, while in the second, they surpass 103%.

“The main takeaway is that 100 days after the halving, the performance difference becomes statistically significant (“T-value” > 2), and then it becomes increasingly important, roughly until the 400th day post-event,” Dragosch added in an interview with CoinDesk. 

Other Observations

Investor and Okse co-founder, known as Elja, stated that Bitcoin’s post-halving consolidation is “almost over,” suggesting that “the time” for a new ATH is approaching. 

$BTC post-halving consolidation is almost over ?

It’s time for a new #Bitcoin ATH ? pic.twitter.com/GFetOFLKnc

— Elja (@Eljaboom) July 29, 2024

A trader known as Jelle noted the recent months of price volatility. 

Every halving event, #Bitcoin goes through a couple months of choppy price action.

Once that phase comes to an end, the true bull market starts.

This time probably won’t be different. pic.twitter.com/wkC1J9fYmy

— Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) July 29, 2024

“Once this phase ends, the true bull market begins. This time will likely be no different,” he believes. 

NFT artist Morteza Yousefi highlighted Bitcoin’s approach to $70,000. He opines that a victory for Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election could propel the leading cryptocurrency to $150,000. 

#BTC

After Trump’s speech about crypto and the market opening today, Bitcoin started to rise. If Trump wins the election, Bitcoin could start its rally to reach $100k and $150k.

Usually, in financial markets, prices move before an event happens.

You saw this with the halving… pic.twitter.com/if0z22obUz

— Morteza Yousefi | NFT Artist (@morteza_yousefy) July 29, 2024

At the time of writing, digital gold is trading at $69,450, having gained 3% in 24 hours. 

In June, technical analyst and Factor LLC head Peter Brandt predicted Bitcoin’s rise to $130,000-150,000 by Q4 2025, should the price follow the pattern of previous bull markets post-halving. 

Prior to this, Bitfinex suggested that the leading cryptocurrency would return to a growth trajectory in Q3–Q4.