The fourth quarter of 2025 likely marked the end of the bear cycle, according to Bitwise.
The latest Bitwise Crypto Market Review just dropped—and it’s the most important one we’ve ever published.
Why? Because it shows a tension in crypto markets that has historically signaled a bear-market bottom (see Q1 2023).
Receipts: During Q4 2025…
— ETH’s price fell 29% ……
— Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest) January 21, 2026
Matt Hougan, the platform’s Chief Investment Officer, compared the current situation to the first quarter of 2023. At that time, the market was recovering after the collapse of the FTX exchange, and Bitcoin’s price rose from $16,000 to $98,000 by early 2025.
According to Hougan, a similar divergence is now observed: asset prices are falling amid rising fundamental indicators. The expert called this a classic sign of a market bottom.
Bitwise highlighted four key trends from the past quarter:
- Record Activity. The number of transactions in Ethereum and second-layer networks reached all-time highs.
- Revenue Growth. Cryptocurrency companies’ revenues are increasing faster than many in the traditional stock market.
- Stablecoin Boom. The market capitalization of stablecoins surpassed $300 billion, setting a new record.
- DeFi Success. Trading volumes on the decentralized exchange Uniswap now consistently exceed those of Coinbase.
Opinions among other market participants are divided. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat, expects a challenging year due to tariffs and policy. Analysts at VanEck are more optimistic, predicting growth in risky assets as early as the first quarter of 2026.
As future growth catalysts, Bitwise cited the adoption of the Clarity Act, a “stablecoin supercycle,” the appointment of a new head of the Fed, and the opening of access to spot ETFs for clients of major brokerage houses.
In January, macroeconomist Luke Gromen warned of the risk of Bitcoin falling to $60,000 due to a trade war.