The digital asset market is likely entering the early stages of a prolonged downturn. However, this will merely serve as a prelude to a more stable and institutional phase of industry development, according to Cantor Fitzgerald investment bank analyst Brett Knoblauch.
According to him, the segment is in the early phase of a “winter,” following the historical four-year Bitcoin cycle. It has been about 85 days since the price peak. Pressure on quotes may persist for months. A test of Strategy’s breakeven level around $75,000 is not ruled out.
The current downturn differs from previous ones due to the absence of mass liquidations and structural failures. The market is now shaped by institutional players rather than retail traders. Knoblauch pointed to the growing gap between token prices and real infrastructure development, especially in the DeFi and RWA sectors.
The volume of tokenized real-world assets has tripled over the year, reaching $18.5 billion. Cantor Fitzgerald expects this figure to exceed $50 billion by 2026 as banks adopt on-chain settlements. Decentralized exchanges, particularly in the perpetual futures segment, will continue to capture market share from centralized platforms, even amid an overall decline in trading volumes.
The analyst also noted the growth of prediction markets. The volume of bets in the sports segment exceeded $5.9 billion. Robinhood, Coinbase, and Gemini have already entered this niche, offering more transparent mechanisms compared to traditional bookmakers.
The main risk remains the price of the first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin’s rate is only 17% above Strategy’s average purchase price. A drop below this level could alarm market participants, although Knoblauch doubts the company will start selling assets.
According to the expert, the next year is unlikely to show explosive growth but will lay the foundation for long-term technology adoption.
Opinions on the Inevitable Downturn
Several experts believe that the traditional four-year cycle of the first cryptocurrency is broken. They cited the launch of spot ETFs, easing regulation in the US, a change in Fed leadership, and increased global liquidity as reasons.
Nick Rak, director of LVRG Research, stated that the historical periodicity began to break down in 2025. Constant demand from funds and corporations smoothed volatility and prevented the deep collapse characteristic of past years. The analyst expects consolidation but predicts continued growth in 2026.
Grayscale and Standard Chartered hold similar views. The former expects a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, while the latter calls the cycle theory “invalid” and sets a Bitcoin target of $150,000.
Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, believes that digital gold entered a bear market as early as late October 2025, becoming the first risky asset to react to the economic slowdown.
Analyst PlanB noted the psychological factor: sales are triggered by “veterans traumatized by 2021,” who habitually expect a drop two years after the halving.
Why is bitcoin not pumping?
Because 50% is selling (OGs traumatized by 2021, technical investors looking at RSI, 4y cycle fans expecting a bear 2y post halving) while the other 50% is buying (fundamental investors, tradfi, banks).
Epic battle … until sellers are out of ammo. pic.twitter.com/er7upg25RV
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 16, 2025
Expert Alex Wacy added that the cycle is not broken but stretched: the absence of altseason and euphoria “causes boredom,” but does not signify the end of growth.
The 4-year cycle isn’t broken.
Expectations are.
Altcoins bled. No euphoria. No altseason. Just boredom and pain.While stocks made ATHs, AI went vertical, gold outperformed.
Cycles don’t always end. Sometimes they stretch.Most already quit.
When this flips, they won’t be on…— AlΞx Wacy 🌐 (@wacy_time1) December 23, 2025
In December, traders estimated the probability of a “crypto winter” at 7%. Later, CryptoQuant analysts warned of the start of a bear market.