The last time such large-scale derivatives liquidations and a sharp reversal of the growing open interest trend were recorded was in August 2023, according to analysts at CryptoQuant.
Experts noted that the situation clearly demonstrated the size of the investor group that was confident and full of positive expectations.
Amid falling prices and worsening sentiment, analysts observed signs of aggressive buying, reflected in the dynamics of the premium on Coinbase.
As a result, the market has already been “thoroughly cleansed.”
“While a period of high volatility cannot be ruled out, whales will eventually move in the opposite direction,” the review states.
CryptoQuant’s conclusions about “weakening speculation” are confirmed by metrics from Glassnode.
#Bitcoin’s perpetual market shows cooling speculation:
?The drop to $93K sent the long-side premium to -$158K/hour.
?The 7-day average fell $181K, signaling persistent pressure.This mirrors post-ATH weakness in April 2024, when funding also turned negative, reflecting a… pic.twitter.com/uKWQLJLCT5
— glassnode (@glassnode) February 3, 2025
According to experts’ calculations, the perpetual contracts market is experiencing a “remake” of April 2024. Back then, after reaching the ATH and subsequent pullback, funding rates turned negative, reflecting growing bearish sentiment.
Separately, CryptoQuant revisited the thesis of approaching the late bull run.
Experts noted that there is currently a transition from the accumulation phase (highlighted in orange) to the distribution phase (in turquoise).
“Bitcoin can still reach significantly higher values. The cost of funding [perpetual contracts] is relatively low and comparable to the level of summer 2024. We are far from a market with excessive leverage. The structure supports further development of the bull run,” the review states.
According to CryptoQuant’s calculations, the “fair” value of the first cryptocurrency can be estimated at $87,990.
In the coming two months, digital gold is expected to rise to $112,000–130,000 due to accelerated institutional inflows and a shift in sentiment towards risk acceptance, according to Standard Chartered.
Earlier, Bitwise predicted “less severe” Bitcoin corrections thanks to initiatives by US President Donald Trump.