CryptoQuant: Strategy Bracing for a Protracted Bear Market

Strategy creates $1.44B reserve, braces for market downturn.

The Bitcoin-friendly company Strategy has established a fiat reserve of $1.44 billion to service debt and pay dividends. Analysts at CryptoQuant interpreted this move as preparation for worsening market conditions.

Strategy’s Bitcoin buying has collapsed through 2025.

Monthly purchases fell from 134K BTC at the 2024 peak to just 9.1K BTC in November 2025, only 135 BTC so far this month.

A 24-month buffer makes one thing clear: they’re bracing for the bear market. pic.twitter.com/qEwXR3JQ82

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 3, 2025

The creation of a 24-month financial “safety cushion” indicates expectations of a prolonged sideways or declining trend in the price of the leading cryptocurrency. Experts suggested that the company is also considering the risk of reduced investor interest in new stock issues.

CryptoQuant described this as a tactical shift. Transitioning to a dual reserve model (dollars and Bitcoin) reduces the likelihood of forced asset sales during deep price drops. Previously, the strategy was based on aggressive coin purchases through constant securities issuance.

Analysts believe this change in approach has implications for the industry. The reduction in purchases by Strategy will weaken the demand support that bolstered previous bull cycles. However, the presence of a dollar buffer and hedging options reduces the risks of “desperation sales.” This will support long-term market stability.

According to specialists, the company no longer considers its Bitcoin portfolio untouchable. Management acknowledges the need for flexibility, including the use of hedging and selective monetization in critical situations.

The pace of accumulation has already slowed. Monthly purchases fell from 134,000 BTC in November 2024 to 9,100 BTC in November 2025. In December, the company acquired only 135 coins.

The Bull Score index developed by CryptoQuant fell to zero for the first time since January 2022, signaling a bearish phase. Julio Moreno, head of research at the analytical platform, suggested that next year digital gold will trade in the range of $55,000-70,000. He noted that Strategy’s creation of a US dollar reserve increases the likelihood of coin sales, but the company will resort to this only as a last resort.

Investment bank Mizuho Securities maintained an “outperform” rating for MSTR shares. Strategy’s CFO Andrew Kang confirmed that the dollar fund is a tool for managing liquidity risks. According to him, the company can sustain operations for more than three years at a rate of around $92,700.

Earlier, from the first to the third quarters, investors reduced positions in MSTR by $5.38 billion—from $36.32 billion to $30.94 billion.