Platforms such as Polymarket have reached a new historical high in daily trading volume, surpassing $814 million, according to data from Dune.
In January alone, the cumulative turnover reached $10.9 billion, closely approaching December’s figure of $11.5 billion.
Kalshi remains the market leader, with its trading volume exceeding $6 billion over 21 days.
The second place is held by the platform supported by YZi Labs and Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, Opinion, with $2.1 billion. The turnover of Polymarket amounted to $2 billion.
The latter remains the leader in open interest with a share of 41.1% ($391 million). Kalshi accounts for 38.1% ($334 million).
A surge in user activity has led to record commission fees for the platforms. Last week, this figure exceeded $2.7 million, marking an all-time high.
Opinion emerged as the leader, accounting for 54% of the total amount ($1.5 million). Polymarket earned approximately $787,000, primarily from short-term 15-minute markets.
Amid the excitement, this sector’s share of the total cryptocurrency spot trading volume exceeded 1% for the first time in history.
A New Phase of Development
Analysts at Galaxy Research have noted that the prediction market has entered a stage of mass recognition and active capital attraction. The rapid growth of Polymarket and Kalshi, along with a wave of startups testing unconventional product solutions, have given the industry momentum.
The Shape of Prediction Markets to Come
new @glxyresearch report
I cover leverage, AI agents, DeFi composability, liquidity, and U.S. regulation pic.twitter.com/2NoE4kYr4h
— will owens (@wowens) January 20, 2026
However, experts point to a fundamental weakness in the sector — a lack of liquidity. This challenge remains relevant even amid the influx of users and increased developer attention to the technology.
Blockade in Portugal
The Portuguese Gambling Regulation and Inspection Service (SRIJ) has demanded the complete cessation of activities and the blocking of Polymarket, according to local media. The reason was an abnormal volume of bets on the presidential elections: hours before the results, the betting amount exceeded €4 million, and the total market turnover reached €110 million.
Such volumes raised concerns among the regulator that bets might have been placed using non-public information, such as leaked exit poll data.
SRIJ found that Polymarket:
- Lacks a license to provide betting services.
- Violates the law by offering prohibited political bets in the country.
SRIJ issued a notice on January 16, giving the project team 48 hours to cease operations. As the site remained accessible after the deadline, authorities initiated a resource block at the internet provider level.
Back in November, the National Gambling Office of Romania blacklisted Polymarket. The agency deemed the platform’s activities unlicensed.