Expert Predicts Bitcoin Rally Due to Trump’s ‘Helicopter Money’

Trump announced a "dividend" program for Americans funded by tariff revenues.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a “dividend” program for Americans funded by tariff revenues.

“Everyone will receive dividends of at least $2,000, except for high-income citizens,” the politician wrote on his social network Truth Social.

Currently, the country’s Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of the president’s proposed tariff measures.

Traders on prediction markets are skeptical about the approval chances. On Polymarket and Kalshi, the probability stands at 23%.

According to analysts from The Kobeissi Letter, about 85% of the U.S. adult population, or 220 million people, could receive the payments. This would amount to a total of $440 billion in dividends.

Stimulus checks are back:

President Trump just announced the “tariff dividend,” a payment of AT LEAST $2,000 per American.

We expect 85%+ of US adults to receive this, resulting in $400+ BILLION handed out.

All as US debt nears $40 trillion.

What’s next? Let us explain. pic.twitter.com/1xVSyq4UUN

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 9, 2025

Experts have warned of inflationary risks. Similar stimuli in 2020 drove inflation to 10%. Currently, it stands at 3%.

Opinions

Andy Constan, CEO of Damped Spring Advisors, noted that Trump does not have the authority to unilaterally approve such payments. Decisions are made by the legislative branch.

All these guys are motherfucking panicked. This 2000 can not be legislated so is fake news https://t.co/CcYaZOBfF8

— Andy Constan (@dampedspring) November 9, 2025

The expert expressed doubt that Congress would approve the president’s initiative.

Tax and budget specialists pointed out the discrepancy between the amount of tariff revenue collected and the stated goals of the payments.

According to Erica York, Vice President of Federal Tax Policy, at least $300 billion would be needed for the dividends promised by Trump. So far, tariffs have brought in only $120 billion.

In the context of the overall impact of tariffs on the budget, the financial prospects of the program appear even more dubious, the expert stated. She explained that each dollar received from tariffs costs the budget 24 cents due to reduced income tax and social contribution revenues.

Considering the indirect effect, the net budget revenue decreases to approximately $90 billion.

Impact

Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, believes that if implemented, Trump’s initiative would positively impact the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

The President of the United States just announced a $2,000+ dividend to American citizens that are not high income.

Stocks and bitcoin only know to go higher in response to stimulus. pic.twitter.com/ZDoOfywK3R

— Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) November 9, 2025

Earlier, Bitfinex analysts expressed a similar view, drawing parallels with events in 2020. At that time, COVID-19-related payments spurred an influx of funds from retail investors and became one of the factors driving bitcoin’s growth.

In March 2020, the U.S. president signed a $2 trillion initiative, which included payments of up to $1,200 for citizens with an adjusted gross income of up to $75,000.

During that period, the price of bitcoin surged by 1050%—from $6,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 by November 2021. However, the rise also coincided with quantitative easing by the Fed. The regulator announced a $4 trillion bond-buying program, increasing the money supply.

The current “dividend” payment could also be accompanied by a crypto-friendly policy from the Federal Reserve. Investors anticipate that at the December 10 meeting, the regulator will cut the key rate by another 25 basis points.

Previously, the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown boosted the crypto market.