Experts predict $15 billion outflows from crypto treasuries

BitcoinForCorporations predicts a $15 billion outflow if MSCI excludes crypto treasuries.

The organisation BitcoinForCorporations has forecasted a capital outflow of up to $15 billion from crypto treasuries if MSCI decides to exclude them from its indices.

The analysis is based on a list of 39 companies with a total market capitalisation of $113 billion (considering free-floating shares).

Eighteen firms valued at $98 billion are at risk of immediate exclusion. Another 21 entities ($15 billion) are not yet included in the index, but these companies risk a permanent ban on inclusion.

Experts specifically highlighted a report by JPMorgan, predicting a $2.8 billion fund outflow from Strategy. Michael Saylor’s firm accounts for 74.5% of the market value of all affected organisations.

BitcoinForCorporations opposed MSCI’s initiative. Their petition has already garnered support from over 1,200 industry representatives.

📈 1,000+ signatures and growing!

We’re calling on MSCI to withdraw its digital-asset threshold. This effort is about fair, neutral, operations-based index classification—and equal treatment across asset classes.

Add your support:
👉 https://t.co/ylANZGLPeT pic.twitter.com/r7aF67LVMr

— Bitcoin For Corporations (@BitcoinForCorps) December 15, 2025

Unfair Criterion

In October, MSCI began discussions with investors about the potential exclusion of companies whose assets consist of more than 50% cryptocurrencies.

The provider’s decision is not merely a formality. Its indices serve as a primary benchmark for numerous passive funds.

Being listed in MSCI almost guarantees an influx of institutional capital; exclusion prompts massive sell-offs and directly affects the value and liquidity of securities.

BitcoinForCorporations criticised the initiative, calling the evaluation of companies solely based on balance sheet structure unfair.

“A single balance sheet metric does not determine whether a firm is an operating enterprise. This rule will lead to the exclusion of issuers even when their customer base, revenue, operations, and business model remain unchanged,” the petition’s authors argue.

The organisation urged MSCI to abandon the initiative and maintain the current classification approach. According to the authors, companies should be evaluated based on their actual business model, financial results, and operational characteristics.

A final decision is expected by January 15. If the new rules are approved, they will take effect during the scheduled index review in February 2026.

Growing Resistance

A number of industry representatives have opposed MSCI’s initiative. Saylor stated:

“Strategy is not a fund, trust, or holding company. We are a public operating company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy using Bitcoin as productive capital.”

Together with Strategy CEO Phong Le, he also sent a letter to MSCI.

Asset manager Bitwise joined them, calling the provider’s criteria subjective and warning that excluding crypto treasuries could harm investors’ interests.

Bitwise supports @Strategy inclusion in MSCI’s Global Investable Market Indexes. https://t.co/TXtKb8SvAN pic.twitter.com/sOa4v6sCyh

— Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest) December 11, 2025

“We strongly urge MSCI to uphold the high standard that has made its indices a global benchmark, and allow its indices, as Strategy put it, to ‘neutrally and accurately reflect the next era of financial technology,’” Bitwise concluded.

In early December, Nasdaq-listed company Strive also stated that MSCI should “allow the market to decide for itself” whether to include Bitcoin firms in the indices.

Earlier, CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, believed that the crypto treasury bubble has largely burst.