Experts weigh the odds of Russia being cut off from Visa and MasterCard and Bitcoin’s role in the scenario

Russian residents could be cut off from international payment systems Visa and MasterCard if Western countries continue to pursue a sanctions policy, said Dmitry Peskov, the president’s press secretary.

According to RBC, Peskov described sanction restrictions as “a rather unpredictable process” and said they manifest in various forms.

“Therefore, within this process, given such unfriendly, and at times even hostile, forms of behavior toward us, nothing should be ruled out,” he said.

Peskov added that the Russian payment system “Mir” has already “grown stronger” and there is no doubt that in the future it will be used internationally.

Earlier, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia might stop using “Western-controlled international payment systems.”

He said Russia regards it as important to “step up efforts to reduce sanctions risk and potential costs for economic operators.”

“The steps, in particular, are aimed at a gradual de-dollarisation of national economies and a move to settlements in national or alternative currencies to the dollar.”

According to ForkLog specialists polled, rumours of Russia’s possible disconnection from Visa and MasterCard have circulated for some time. Moscow Digital School expert Efim Kazantsev noted that such a possibility cannot be ruled out entirely:

“Sanction policy can take various forms, including the financial isolation of the Russian Federation by disconnecting it from payment systems.”

The independent expert Mansur Guseinov called the possible disconnection from Visa or MasterCard under sanctions “at least unwarranted.”

“People use cards, and sanctions by their nature should be directed not at them. So a possible disconnection from MasterCard would be a loud move, but beyond the public backlash it would have little to no effect.”

EXANTE chief strategist Yanis Kivkulis said calls for sanctions in the payments sphere could become more frequent as authorities pursue a more substantial shift toward the “Mir.”

He noted that Russia is not alone in building its own payments system — Europe is developing an alternative to the processing giants called the European Payments Initiative (EPI), and China has had such systems for some time:

“This is a sign that the world is becoming fragmented. It may also be another manifestation of the decline of the United States’ hegemony as the financial centre able to control capital flows.”

Kivkulis added that, in these conditions, cryptocurrencies appear to retail investors as a suitable supranational alternative, and therefore “only flourish against the backdrop of news of fragmentation of the financial payment system.”

Efim Kazantsev also agrees. He believes that Russia’s possible disconnection from Visa and MasterCard will raise interest in cryptocurrencies as an alternative means of international transfers:

“Losing ‘international plastic’ — many citizens who previously had little interest in cryptocurrencies may take an interest in it as a way to send funds to another country anonymously and without draconian fees.”

Mansur Guseinov says that the possibility of Russia being cut off from international payment systems will not affect the cryptoasset market in any way:

“For cryptocurrencies, such sanctions, even if they occur, are neutral. The state does not want to permit the circulation of cryptocurrencies and seeks to strangle them; an alternative would be to use Russian payment systems, such as Mir.”

Denis Voskvitov, head of fintech firm Exantech, is convinced that cryptocurrencies in their current form will not become a full replacement for payment systems.

According to him, reasons include the lack of infrastructure, polished user software that can be used without special training, and adoption by major marketplaces such as Amazon.

He also pointed to the lack of “clear and reliable gateways between local payment systems and cryptocurrency,” which could “significantly complicate ordinary Russians’ lives.”

“Moreover, if there is no cryptocurrency in stock or there is no technical expertise to acquire it without using Visa or MasterCard, it is unlikely to be a way out,”

Earlier the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Russia could see an alternative to the international cross-border payments system SWIFT , owing to the rapid development of digital currencies and blockchain.

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