Glassnode pinpoints threshold to halt the bear trend

Glassnode says reclaiming the 0.75 cost-basis quantile is key to halting bitcoin's bear trend.

Bulls must quickly push bitcoin back to the level at which 75% of coins are in profit—only then, historically, has the trend reversal been arrested, Glassnode analysts said.

$BTC has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level that has historically marked bear-market territory. Across cycles, reclaiming and holding above it has been key to restoring bullish structure. Bulls will want to see this level regained.
📉https://t.co/EtwrSOJz63 pic.twitter.com/2dljEU7j1R

— glassnode (@glassnode) November 19, 2025

According to the firm, bitcoin’s price has slipped below the cost-basis 0.75 quantile, which approximates the average entry price of investors. The metric is used as a gauge of market structure:

• above it—most holders are in profit and the trend remains bullish;
• below it—loss-making positions dominate, putting the market in bear territory.

Historically, reclaiming and holding above this level has required significant buying and has served as a key signal of trend recovery.

Current price action points to the need for consolidation before any attempted reversal.

Correction nearly complete

An analyst using the handle Darkfost noted that as of November 19, 6.96 million BTC were at a loss—the largest volume since January 2024.

🔴 Today, more than 6.96 million BTC accumulated by investors are now sitting at a loss.

💥 This is the highest level of unrealized loss since January 2024, even though the ongoing correction still hasn’t surpassed the deepest drawdown of this cycle.

This suggests that a large… pic.twitter.com/Dznx3LKtJ5

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) November 19, 2025

He called the current correction “paradoxical”: it has not yet exceeded the deepest drawdown of the cycle. In his view, this points to substantial accumulation near previous highs, which explains panic selling by short-term holders.

“In a bull trend, such an increase in unrealized losses has historically created strong buying opportunities. It is at such moments that the famous ‘change of hands’ everyone talks about occurs—when assets move from the weak to the strong,” the analyst explained.

Specialists at XWIN Research Japan pointed to the start of “the most severe phase for short-term holders (STH) in this cycle”. Several key metrics support this view:

• STH-SOPR has dropped to extremely low levels around 0.97, indicating coins are being spent at a loss—historically a sign of panic selling;
• STH-MVRV is below 1, marking the lowest level of short-term holder profitability on record;
• 65,200 BTC were sent to exchanges with losses realized.

“This behavior aligns with classic capitulation phases: unrealized losses surge, panic selling accelerates, sell pressure becomes unsustainable, and ‘strong hands’ start absorbing supply,” the experts stressed.

They say today’s market structure resembles the late stages of a correction rather than its beginning.

Earlier, Standard Chartered’s head of digital-asset research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said the bitcoin sell-off had ended. He expects the price to rise by year-end.

Miners shift to accumulation

CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk highlighted “strategic rather than panic behavior” among bitcoin miners.

Market Bleeding, But How About Miners?

“The last seven days show net accumulation of 777 BTC… This transition from distribution back toward accumulation at relative price lows historically precedes stabilization phases.” – By @Crazzyblockk

Link ⤵️https://t.co/USaIfFP56k pic.twitter.com/eKHZP1YxGM

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 19, 2025

During the rally from October 10th to 27th, miners accumulated an average of 843 BTC per month. However, after the price falling below $110,000 in early November, their strategy shifted—between November 7th and 17th, their net position was -831 BTC.

“This 1674 BTC swing reflects a tactical adaptation to deteriorating market conditions,” the expert wrote.

Daily flows point to a measured approach: over the past 30 days, miners sold coins on only 11 of 30 days, and total sales (6,048 BTC) were almost matched by accumulation (6,467 BTC).

The largest sale took place on November 6th—1,898 BTC at $102,637—when miners could still lock in substantial profits.

Most telling has been the shift to net accumulation over the past seven days: +777 BTC, even with bitcoin trading 12.6% below October levels. The 30-day net position turned positive again, at +419 BTC as of November 17th.

“The transition from distribution to accumulation at relative price lows has historically preceded stabilization phases. […] It seems miners have completed balance adjustments and no longer exert negative pressure on the price of the first cryptocurrency, potentially signaling a turning point in supply dynamics,” Crazzyblockk concluded.

Earlier, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole said that aggressively bullish bets in the crypto-options market have given way to “decidedly bearish” positioning.