Hyperliquid Launches Prediction Markets

Hyperliquid activates HIP-4 on HyperEVM, introducing prediction markets.

Developers of the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid have activated the HIP-4 protocol on the HyperEVM mainnet. The primary innovation introduced is the prediction markets. 

Outcome Markets, powered by @HyperliquidX

Trade now on https://t.co/DH8Myx535B ! pic.twitter.com/Q5P0vfqEAj

— Outcome (@Outcomexyz) May 2, 2026

Currently, the platform offers bets on a single event—whether the price of Bitcoin will exceed $79,980 by May 5. 

On the first day of trading, the volume reached 6.05 million contracts, noted a researcher under the pseudonym defioasis.eth. For comparison, during the same period, the Kalshi platform recorded 546 million contracts, and Polymarket—190 million.

Hyperliquid HIP-4 event contracts are officially live

On the first trading day, HIP-4 event contracts reached a nominal trading volume of 6.05 million contracts, accounting for about 0.7% of the day’s prediction market share

In comparison:

— Kalshi reached 546 million contracts
— Polymarket reached 190 million contracts
— Limitless reached 68.26 million contracts
— Crypto com reached 28.2 million contracts
— Opinion reached… pic.twitter.com/7jrjsOino6

— defioasis.eth (@defioasis) May 3, 2026

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid’s product has already captured about 0.7% of the daily volume on prediction platforms. 

How HIP-4 Works

The protocol allows the creation of event outcome markets within the Hyperliquid infrastructure. To launch, a user must stake 1 million HYPE. This approach differs from Polymarket’s model, which requires platform approval. 

Contracts are natively integrated into the L1 HyperEVM network. In the case of Polymarket, event bets are a separate product on the L2 solution Polygon.

Predictions are available in the same wallet and trading environment as other Hyperliquid tools. Profit and loss settlements are conducted in the project’s stablecoin, USDH. Trading operates via a central order book.

April Results 

In April, the total trading volume on prediction platforms amounted to $29.8 billion. In March, the figure was estimated at $26.5 billion.

Monthly Prediction Market Notional Volumes
(2026-04 vs 2026-03)
2026-04: 29.0B | 2026-03: 26.5B

• Kalshi: 14.8B (+13.3% MoM)
• Polymarket: 8.2B (-22.2% MoM)
• Limitless: 1.7B (+207.8% MoM)
• Predict: 1.5B (+368.2% MoM)
• Polymarket (US): 1.3B (+85.2% MoM)
•… pic.twitter.com/qKkHvGNLZE

— dash (@datadashboards) May 3, 2026

The leader was the Kalshi platform, accounting for $14.8 billion in turnover (+13.3% month-on-month). In second place was Polymarket with a volume of $9 billion (-14.8%). Despite the decline, the American division of the platform increased by 85%—$1.3 billion. The project resumed operations in the US at the end of 2025. 

More pronounced dynamics were demonstrated by Limitless (+207%) and Predict (+368%). 

Back in late April, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted Hyperliquid’s leadership in the prediction market thanks to the HYPE token.