The drop in the price of the leading cryptocurrency to $60,000 imposed psychological pressure on long-term holders (LTH) comparable to the collapse of the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem in May 2022, according to Glassnode analysts.
The recent drop to $60k imposed drastic psychological pressure on “diamond hands,” comparable to the May 2022 LUNA crash.
In both cases, the 7D EMA of Long-Term Holder SOPR fell below 1 after trading for 1-2 years above it.
Simply put, long-term holders realized significant… pic.twitter.com/xc6bXzwPYx— glassnode (@glassnode) February 16, 2026
Their data show the seven-day EMA of the SOPR for this cohort fell below 1. That implies they sold at significant losses — a rare shift in behaviour typically seen in the deeper stages of a bear phase.
During the first sharp leg down in November 2025, the market aggressively absorbed selling, resembling the response after the Terra and FTX collapses. By contrast, the recent slide to $60,000, while accompanied by some accumulation, showed markedly weaker demand than the November 2025 bounce or the reflexive bid seen after the LUNA collapse.
During the first sharp leg down in NOV 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, similar to the post-LUNA & FTX crash responses.
The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen… https://t.co/xEurQqGJXj pic.twitter.com/BsyGWoKSpX— glassnode (@glassnode) February 16, 2026
An analyst going by the name Darkfost shared a similar observation, reinforcing the late-bear-market thesis.
🔴 Long Term Holders show early signs of stress.
According to the SOPR, long term holders are also starting to come under pressure as this correction continues, marking a notable shift in market dynamics.
–💡The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is a simple measure of realized… pic.twitter.com/pGQdAjPLzW
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) February 17, 2026
He said the LTH SOPR now stands at 0.88. Prolonged downtrends have typically ended when the ratio reached 0.5.
At the same time, the expert stressed the trend is not yet entrenched. The monthly average for the metric is 1.09.
“We have not yet entered a true LTH capitulation phase. Rather, these are early signs of weakening sentiment that may either fade if the market stabilises or intensify if selling pressure persists,” he explained.
Weak demand
Darkfost also pointed to net outflows of stablecoins from Binance for a third consecutive month. In his view, this signals a persistent contraction in liquidity across the crypto market.
🔴Binance sees third straight month of negative Stablecoin netflows
This marks the third consecutive month in which stablecoin netflows on Binance have remained in negative territory, signaling a persistent contraction in the liquidity available across the crypto market.
💥The… pic.twitter.com/Y4ekAQIevw
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) February 16, 2026
Outflows totalled $1.8bn in December, $2.9bn in January and $3bn since the start of February. The last similar pattern came during the 2023 bear market, the specialist noted.
“This sustained decline in reserves points to weakening demand and a more defensive investor stance,” he commented.
The technical analyst known as Ardi said bitcoin open interest on Binance has slumped 20% over the past two weeks.
Open Interest down 20% in 2 weeks. Price up 20% from the lows in that same window.
Shorts closing. Not new longs entering.
There’s no fresh capital entering in this range right now. Until OI starts climbing WITH price, every bounce is a series of short… pic.twitter.com/0bitjf5s6g
— Ardi (@ArdiNSC) February 17, 2026
“Shorts are closing, and new longs are not opening. There is no influx of fresh capital in this range right now,” he wrote.
Until open interest begins to rise alongside price, each bounce will amount to another round of short covering. Ardi argues the sector has entered the dullest phase of the bear market, when traders lose interest.
At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $68,100, down 1.3% over the past 24 hours.
Earlier, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone confirmed a $10,000 bitcoin forecast.