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March in Figures: Inflows to DeFi and Bitcoin’s Recovery Amid the Banking Crisis

March in Figures: Inflows to DeFi and Bitcoin’s Recovery Amid the Banking Crisis

Key highlights

  • Bitcoin closed its best quarter since the start of 2021. Leading cryptocurrencies were in demand amid the crisis in the U.S. banking sector.
  • “Fear and Greed Index” updated its annual high, signalling investor optimism.
  • Liquidity inflows continued into the decentralised finance sector.
  • On-chain indicators signal the potential for further upside in the first cryptocurrency.
  • Profit-taking was largely concentrated on centralised exchanges by speculators. Hodlers remain steadfast.
  • Hashrate and mining difficulty for digital gold reached new highs again.
  • Investors showed strong interest in crypto derivatives. Open interest in options reached an all-time high.
  • Depeg of USDC led to significant changes in the stablecoins segment.

Dynamics of Leading Assets

Daily BTC/USDT chart on Binance. Data: TradingView.
Daily ETH/USDT chart on Binance. Data: TradingView.
  • U.S. regulators charged several industry figures (Huobi, Coinbase, Justin Sun, SushiSwap). Despite the negative reaction to Bitcoin and the market (on March 10 the price dipped to $20,000), sentiment quickly turned bullish.
  • A banking crisis began in the United States and amid macroeconomic instability, the crypto market posted notable gains, and its market capitalization returned to above $1 trillion. On March 30, Bitcoin hit a local high above $29,000.
  • By the month’s end, Bitcoin was up 22.96% and Ethereum 13.46%. In Q1 2023, both cryptocurrencies rose by 71.77% and 52.15%, respectively.
Gainers & Losers of the month (projects with capitalization and volume over $200m). Data: Messari.

Among the successful projects in March, the Avalanche-based token Trader Joe (JOE) stood out. Platform trading volume rose significantly thanks to the prior integration of a new liquidity-provision model. Additionally, the DEX added support for Arbitrum, and after listing, its DAO received a substantial ARB allocation. Other gainers include Swipe (SXP) and Conflux (CFX). The former announced a rebranding to Solar, and the latter expanded in Asia with new partnerships.

Losers of the month included Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) — amid the arrest of Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon — as well as Maker (MKR) and Fetch.ai (FET).

Stocks of crypto-related companies

MicroStrategy (MSTR)
+10.78%

Coinbase (COIN):
+3.48%

Bakkt (BKKT):
+17%

Galaxy Digital (GLXY):
+8.4%

Mining equities performance

Canaan (CAN):
−5.92%

Ebang International (EBON):
−9.78%

Riot Blockchain (RIOT):
+56.58%

Hut 8 (HUT):
+12.8%

Marathon Digital (MARA):
+21.45%

Market sentiment, correlations and volatility

Fear and Greed Index dynamics. Data: alternative.me.
  • In March, the Fear and Greed Index updated its annual high, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting, reaching 68. This level is consistent with November 2021 when Bitcoin prices neared $20,000 and then moved to an all-time high.
  • The index’s low of 33 was recorded on March 12. The drop was attributed to panic following the depeg of the USD Coin (USDC) from the U.S. dollar.
  • The index’s trajectory points to investor optimism despite banking sector concerns and intensified regulatory pressure on sector players. This may signal the start of a new bull run.
90-day asset correlation indicators. Data: BlockchainCenter.
Bitcoin BVOL24H intraday volatility index dynamics. Data: BitMEX.
  • In March, Bitcoin’s statistical correlation with the U.S. stock market weakened significantly. Its correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.27 (0.42 in February), and with the Dow Jones index to 0.25 (0.38 the previous month).
  • Bitcoin price and gold moved in lockstep; however, the correlation between the two assets strengthened to 0.25 from 0.15 in February. Against the backdrop of the banking crisis, the digital asset demonstrates better performance relative to traditional financial instruments.
  • The average BVOL24H over the last month stood at $3, higher than February’s $2.1.
  • The indicator reached a high of $6.1 on March 14, when prices rose above $26,000.

Macro backdrop

Change in deposits in U.S. commercial banks. Data: Bloomberg.
Federal Reserve balance sheet dynamics. Data: ZeroHedge.
  • Stabilising sentiment reopens the case for a 25 basis point hike by the Fed at the May 3 meeting. The probability rose to 48.4%. During the peak of banking turmoil, traders leaned toward a cut or keeping rates unchanged.
  • In March the Fed raised the target range to 4.75–5%. The path forward will depend on banking sector developments and upcoming macro data—especially services inflation and employment (April 7).
  • The Fed’s liquidity injections helped the S&P and Nasdaq-100 close the first quarter up 7% and 20.5%, respectively. Bitcoin tested the level above $29,000.

On-chain data

MVRV Z-Score dynamics. Data: Look Into Bitcoin.
Number of addresses with ≥ 0.01 BTC (thousand) and Bitcoin price. Data: Glassnode.
Number of addresses with ≥ 1 BTC (thousand) and Bitcoin price. Data: Glassnode.
Net transfers of Bitcoins to and from exchanges. Data: Glassnode.
Liveliness indicator dynamics. Data: Glassnode.

Ethereum

Daily ETH burn and validators count. Data: Etherscan.
Balances of Ethereum on centralized exchanges and the share of ETH staked in smart contracts. Data: Glassnode.
Total ETH staked and validators count. Data: Glassnode.
Ethereum 2.0 addresses with a balance of ≥ 32 ETH. Data: Glassnode.

Lightning Network

Lightning Network capacity dynamics. Data: Glassnode.
Number of nodes and channels on the Lightning Network. Data: Glassnode.

Mining, Hashrate, Fees

Bitcoin hashrate dynamics, EH/s. Data: Glassnode.
Bitcoin mining difficulty. Data: Coin Metrics.
Hashprice dynamics. Data: Hashrate Index.
Bitcoin miners’ earnings by month. Data: Glassnode.
Average fee per BTC and ETH transaction. Data: Coin Metrics.

Volume of trades

Trading volume on leading spot exchanges, $ billions. Data: The Block.

Futures and options

Futures volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum, in trillions. Data: Glassnode.
Options volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum, in billions. Data: Glassnode.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures and options. Data: Coinglass.

DeFi

Change in the value of assets locked in the DeFi sector. Data: DeFi Llama.
Top ecosystems by value of locked funds, in $ billions. Data: DeFi Llama.
Top-20 DeFi coins by market capitalization. Data: Messari (as of 01.04.2023).
Top-5 DeFi projects on Ethereum by locked funds value, in $ billions. Data: DeFi Llama.
TVL by main categories of DeFi apps. Data: DeFi Llama.
Market capitalization of popular BTC on Ethereum, in $ billions. Data: Dune Analytics.
Daily transaction counts in the Polygon, Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain and Avalanche ecosystems. Data: Tron, Etherscan, BscScan, Arbiscan.

DEX and L2

Trading volume on decentralised Ethereum exchanges, in $ billions. Data: Dune Analytics.
TVL in Ethereum Layer-2 protocols. Data: L2BEAT.

Stablecoins

Market capitalisation of stablecoins, in $bn. Data: Glassnode, Messari.

In March, stablecoins’ market capitalisation slipped to $131bn, influenced by the U.S. banking crisis.

On March 11, the second-largest stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) lost parity with the U.S. dollar due to problems at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which was closed during the banking turmoil. The issuer Circle held $3.3bn in the bank, which were blocked. The company immediately announced plans to use its corporate reserves and external capital to cover the shortfall, but investors did not stop.

Because USDC is actively used in DeFi and as collateral for other assets, a cascading effect followed — decentralised stablecoins DAI and FRAX also lost their dollar pegs. The situation was resolved in favour of SVB clients — authorities announced a rescue, and USDC returned to its $1 target.

Despite the resolution, USDC’s market cap continued to decline, finishing March down by $9.1bn. In contrast, Tether (USDT) grew by $8.7bn.

In March, True USD (TUSD) issuance doubled, supported by Binance (rising from $1bn to $2bn). As Binance gradually exits Binance USD (BUSD), it converted stablecoins into SAFU reserves in TUSD and USDT. Moreover, Binance’s zero-fee trading now operates only in the BTC/TUSD pair.

NFT

Daily NFT marketplace volume, ETH. Data: Dune Analytics.

The Blur marketplace cemented its position as the leading platform in the NFT space, eclipsing OpenSea. In March, daily volumes were on average three times higher.

Activity by NFT collections. Data: Cryptoslam.
NFT sales across blockchains. Data: Cryptoslam.
Fees for issuing Bitcoin Ordinals. Data: Dune Analytics.

Activity of major players

Major public companies holding Bitcoin in reserves. Data: Bitcoin Treasuries.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures on CME. Data: CFTC.
Long and short positions of retail traders (Nonreportable). Data: CFTC.
Bulls and bears among large CME futures traders and total number of traders. Data: CFTC.
  • The total number of large CME futures traders continued to rise, reaching a record 122 by month-end.
  • The total number of Ethereum futures traders fell to November 2022 levels, yet the figure remains on an upward trajectory.
Open interest in Ethereum futures on CME. Data: CFTC.
Position dynamics of large institutional players (Commercial) trading Ethereum futures on CME. Data: CFTC.
  • Open interest in Ethereum futures on CME was down 37.5% by the end of March, but the upward trend remains intact.
  • Among Commercials with rising edge, longs outnumber shorts, indicating optimism among large market participants ahead of the Shapella upgrade.

Venture rounds

$109m

Ledger hardware wallet developer Ledger raised in a Series C round at a higher valuation — $1.42bn.

$50m

Scroll, Ethereum startup. Reports suggest a valuation of about $1.8bn.

$50m

EigenLayer, the restaking protocol team, in Series A. Company valued at $250m and native tokens at $500m.

$40m

Fetch.ai from DWF Labs. Blockchain startup valued at $250m.

$40m

CCP Games studio developing a blockchain-based game in the EVE universe. Investment round led by Andreessen Horowitz.

$28m

Web3 AI-driven social network OP3N in Series A. Valuation put at $100m.

Regulation

Crypto exchanges halted operations on hryvnia bank cards for Ukrainian users amid the fight against illegal gambling.

  • In the United States, policymakers proposed taxing miners 30% of electricity costs.
  • The U.S. Internal Revenue Service plans to classify NFTs as tangible art and tax accordingly.

French authorities adopted new rules for registering crypto companies.

Belarus extended tax relief for the Bitcoin industry until 2025.

Denmark court explained the principles of taxing profits from Bitcoin.

Thailand relaxed tax rules for issuers of investment tokens.

European Parliament passed a law on digital wallets and will require crypto platforms to comply with AML requirements.

Bitcoin will be categorized in a separate category on UK tax returns.

Hong Kong’s financial regulator will hold a meeting between crypto firms and banks, “to foster direct dialogue and knowledge sharing.”

Month’s materials