Analysts estimate annual losses for Russia’s banks from CBDC introduction at 50 billion rubles

The introduction of the digital ruble could potentially hit banks and benefit retailers. This was stated by analysts from Yakov and Partners to Forbes.

According to their preliminary assessment, because the new asset will partially take share from cashless settlements, banks could begin losing up to 50 billion rubles per year in the form of payment-processing fees and costs of attracting liabilities.

At the same time, the emergence of the digital ruble is expected to boost retailers’ revenues by no less than 80 billion rubles per year.

“Retail networks with the new instrument will be able to save on acquiring and instantly receive funds into their accounts, unlike card payments, where it can take up to three days,” the experts assessed.

For consumers, the advantages of the digital ruble are not so obvious — they may be left without interest on the balance and cashback for operations with it.

“The digital ruble does not have obvious advantages in terms of everyday convenience, and international experience shows that reducing the cost of acquiring does not lead to lower prices or slower price growth — only to higher retailers’ profits,” the analysts noted.

So far they do not expect the digital ruble to take a dominant share of retail payment volumes.

The prototype platform launch for the digital ruble occurred in January 2022 with the participation of five banks. Together with the regulator they tested the issuance of the asset, opened digital wallets, and transfers between citizens.

Earlier, experts warned that the issuance of the digital ruble would significantly reduce banks’ revenues. In Sberbank they assessed the possible outflow of bank funds at around 2–4 trillion rubles.