Analysts forecast Bitcoin breakout from its current trading range

With volatility at exceptionally low levels and narrow trading ranges, the balance in the Bitcoin market is likely to be breached soon, according to Glassnode analysts.

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We analyse a #Bitcoin market that looks primed for a regime of higher volatility in the near-term.

With little clear gravity in either direction, we bound the problem using key psychological price models.https://t.co/mLfWPD2O5t pic.twitter.com/q3kXzRlK8y

— _Checkɱate ?⚡?☢️?️ (@_Checkmatey_) May 29, 2023

The monthly realized volatility has fallen to 34.1%, below one standard deviation Bollinger Bands. Such periods of low volatility account for just 19.3% of market history.

Lower volatility and a decline in on-chain value transferred point to a phase of equilibrium. This is corroborated by the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), whose value (0.29) corresponds to such phases of the cycle (from 0.25 to 0.5). In the two previous similar episodes, this state persisted for about 16 months. NUPL entered this zone in March 2023.

The cost basis of coins acquired by active investors is $33 500. In experts’ view, this level may form the upper bound of the current consolidation. MVRV for this category of market participants stands at 0.83 — many buyers in the 2021-2022 cycle are \”in the red\” and may wait for break-even prices to liquidate their assets.

The lower bound of consolidation could be indicated by the Investor Cap Price metric at $17 650.

The phase of balance is also signaled by the ratio of the current price to the cost basis for long-term investors. An overtake of the second metric over the first marks the end of the “bottom formation”.

The Spending Binary Indicator (7D-MA), which tracks hodlers’ spending, showed extremely low readings in recent weeks, with a pickup during the recent correction.

Earlier this March, CNBC’s influential industry figures demonstrated bullish sentiment toward bitcoin. They forecast the asset could test the previous high and even reach $100 000.

In reaching that level within 12 months, Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of Messari, expressed confidence.