Analysts Predict Period of Low Bitcoin Volatility

Experts at CryptoQuant have expressed doubts about the imminent resurgence of a strong price increase for the leading cryptocurrency, suggesting a prolonged stagnation.

STH Realized Price Bands Are Tightening

“A similar pattern was observed in May 2024… This resulted in a prolonged period of low volatility and market consolidation. If no strong demand catalyst emerges, history could repeat itself.” – By @Yonsei_dent pic.twitter.com/E2xEPd7HyH

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) March 6, 2025

“Recently, the realized price levels of short-term holders have begun to converge, indicating an alignment of the average entry cost for recent Bitcoin buyers. This may suggest stagnation in market supply and demand or growing uncertainty in price movement,” noted contributor Yonsei_dent.

According to his observations, the moving averages with periods of 60 and 200 days are also converging. A similar pattern was observed in May 2024, followed by a period of low volatility and market consolidation amid low trading volumes.

“If a strong demand driver does not emerge in the market, history is likely to repeat itself,” the analyst emphasized.

However, he added that a key factor could be the stance of Donald Trump’s administration on digital currencies. The crypto summit scheduled for March 7 is attracting particular attention, as important discussions on industry regulation are expected. If positive signals are given, the market could gain new momentum, and the price structure could break out of its compression state.

Yonsei_dent’s colleague, analyst Woominkyu, noted that the period of FOMO has not yet arrived.

“Historically, the entry of the [fear] index into the ‘Optimism’ zone often heralded a major Bitcoin rally. However, the ‘Euphoria’ stage signaled an overheated market, usually followed by significant corrections,” the expert noted.

According to him, during the ‘Optimism’ stage, it is important to closely monitor the market, comparing current dynamics with historical trends. Meanwhile, entering the ‘Euphoria’ zone is fraught with sharp price corrections.

Back in earlier reports, F2Pool co-founder Shen Yu linked the resumption of the bull run to the prospects of the Bitcoin reserve in the US.