The price of the leading cryptocurrency has retreated almost 8% in four days from its all-time high above $124,000. Technical indicators point to the risk of further declines.
The analyst known as Captain Faibik highlighted a breakdown from a rising wedge on the daily chart. Traders view the pattern as a bearish signal that often precedes sharp declines.
$BTC Rising Wedge Breakdown is Confirmed on the Daily TF Chart..✅
📉 Potential Targets if breakdown continues:
First Support: 110k – 112k
Next demand zone: 105k – 108k
Extreme Bearish flush could eye 98k – 100k Psychological level#Crypto #Bitcoin #BTC pic.twitter.com/txuB5Bhjfa
— Captain Faibik 🐺 (@CryptoFaibik) August 18, 2025
Historically, in bull markets a rising wedge plays out 81% of the time. On average, bears’ potential gain after it forms is 38%.
According to Captain Faibik, the break below the wedge’s support signals fading momentum and growing selling pressure. The nearest support sits at $110,000–112,000; losing it would open the way to $105,000–108,000.
If selling intensifies into September, price could slip into the “psychological” $98,000–100,000 zone.
In a worst case, the drop could reach $88,000, said Cointelegraph analyst Yashu Gola.
He forecasts the scenario would be invalidated if Bitcoin holds above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). In that case, price could revisit the wedge’s upper boundary near $125,000.
Swissblock analysts also flagged a forming double top on the weekly chart.
Bitcoin, what is the plan?
Bitcoin faces a decisive week.
The weekly close wasn’t ideal, echoing the 2021 double top.Without a reversal, distribution risk looms and rallies may stay capped. 👇 pic.twitter.com/NF0BNr9wAX
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) August 18, 2025
The pattern recalls 2021, when the asset fell 77%, Gola noted. If it plays out similarly, by September Bitcoin risks dropping to the 50-day EMA around $94,750.
At the time of writing, digital gold trades at $115,313 (-2.5% over 24 hours), according to CoinGecko.
On-chain metrics
According to Glassnode, the number of addresses with balances above 10,000 BTC has fallen to a one-year low.
Wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have also declined, suggesting large holders took profits near recent highs.
However, the current price cycle differs from 2021, Gola stressed. Back then the Fed was rolling back stimulus; now, according to CME FedWatch, the market expects a rate cut in September.
Swissblock added that incoming liquidity could offset technical weakness and keep Bitcoin’s uptrend intact.
Macro tells a different story: in 2021, BTC peaked into the start of QT and rate hikes.
In 2025, we’re approaching QE and rate cuts.
Technical fragility vs macro tailwinds.Short-term fragility, but macro liquidity tilts the balance. pic.twitter.com/dlH3qEHtaS
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) August 18, 2025
In July, CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole warned that Bitcoin’s bullish momentum was fading.