Bernstein Sets Bitcoin Target Post-Halving

Following the upcoming halving, Bitcoin is anticipated to resume its rally with a target of $150,000, according to Bernstein, as reported by The Block.

In March, the company considered the correction to around $63,000 a good buying opportunity for digital gold before the miners’ reward is halved.

Subsequently, experts revised their Bitcoin forecast from $80,000 to $90,000 by the end of the year. At that time, they also noted expectations for the first cryptocurrency to reach $150,000 at the peak of the 2024–2025 bull rally.

“We expect the price trajectory to become bullish again post-halving. The integration of spot Bitcoin ETFs with platforms and RIA will ensure structural demand,” the specialists wrote.

In March, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas identified this factor as one of two “powerful catalysts” for the asset’s further growth. The second was the approval of options based on exchange-traded funds for digital gold.

Bernstein explained that the halving will not lead to a price increase without fresh purchases. The halving of miners’ rewards will reduce their potential selling pressure on the asset.

“At current prices, this market participant category earns about $50 million from mining. This is only 0.12% of the daily trading volume. […] We believe that new catalysts contribute to price growth in each cycle,” the experts stated.

In the past, demand drivers often synchronized with halvings of miners’ rewards. As an example, analysts cited central banks’ liquidity expansion during the pandemic and digital gold purchases by companies like Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy.

In the current cycle, spot Bitcoin ETFs have become such a catalyst.

“Historically, the breakthrough [ATH] always followed the halving, sometimes even months after the event. In 2024, the approval of exchange-traded funds led to a strong price increase before the reduction of miners’ rewards,” the document states.

A Look at Mining

According to Bernstein’s calculations, post-halving, the hash rate will decrease by ~7% due to the shutdown of inefficient equipment. The industry will see increased consolidation around four leading public miners — CleanSpark, Marathon, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining.

The predicted moderate decline is due to current high price levels and the share of transaction fees at 8–10% of total revenue.

Specialists added that if the first cryptocurrency’s price drops to $40,000 or lower, the hash rate decline will be more significant.

Such a scenario seems unlikely to them due to the “incompleteness” of structural demand for BTC-ETF. They estimate it will reach $80 billion in 2024–2025 from the current $12 billion.

Experts confirmed their view that after the halving of rewards, the market capitalization growth of leading public miners will outpace the dynamics of the first cryptocurrency over the next 12 months.

Back in April, to mark Bitcoin’s halving, the ForkLog team held an online forum, AllTimeHalf 2024, featuring developers, entrepreneurs, enthusiasts, and visionaries. Recordings are available on the YouTube channel.

We also suggest exploring the event-related research by CoinGecko and Binance.