Overnight on July 14, the price of the leading cryptocurrency set a new all-time high, surpassing $120,000. It is up 13% since the start of the month.
Institutional investors are fuelling the rally. Assets under management in BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, have exceeded $84 billion. The fund reached that level in 200 trading days; gold ETF GLD took 15 years to do the same.
At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at $122,110 (+3.6% over 24 hours), according to CoinGecko.
Bitcoin’s rise to a new high of $123,218 was driven by several factors, Kirill Khomyakov, head of regional markets at Binance in the CIS, Central and Eastern Europe and Africa, told ForkLog.
The main driver, he confirmed, is persistent institutional interest via spot ETFs.
Macro conditions also contributed, the expert believes. Risk appetite has strengthened across global markets, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 setting record highs. Citing Binance Research, Khomyakov added that investors are rotating out of haven assets into higher-risk ones, including cryptocurrencies.
He also pointed to the trend of adding bitcoin to corporate reserves. According to ARK Invest, since the start of the year companies’ interest in holding digital assets on their balance sheets has more than doubled.
“The current rise of bitcoin does not look like a short-term spike, but like the result of mature, multi-layered demand at the intersection of macroeconomic trends, institutional adoption and the rapidly growing integration of cryptocurrencies into companies’ financial strategies,” Khomyakov concluded.
Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, emphasised that IBIT crossed the $80 billion mark faster than any ETF in history.
$IBIT blew through the $80b mark last night, fastest ETF to get there in 374 days, about 5x faster than the previous record, held by $VOO, which did it in 1,814 days. Also at $83b it’s now 21st biggest ETF overall.. via @JackiWang17 pic.twitter.com/a0LuvfeSek
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 11, 2025
Since April, net inflows into US spot bitcoin ETFs have totalled $16.2 billion. According to BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas, these instruments concentrate more than 6% of bitcoin’s total market capitalisation, indicating “deep conviction among institutions”.
Regulatory expectations and macro factors
The market is also responding to upbeat expectations for “crypto week” in the United States. Lawmakers will consider several key bills. Among them are the CLARITY Act, which would delineate the powers of the SEC and the CFTC in overseeing digital assets, and the GENIUS Act, which creates a legal framework for stablecoins.
10x Research analyst Markus Thielen argues that bitcoin has shifted from a technology asset to a macro asset—a hedge against US fiscal problems. In his view, the recent $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling and the widening budget deficit strengthen the cryptocurrency’s case.
“No one talks about blockchain use cases anymore. Bitcoin has become a defence against the uncontrolled budget deficit. Alongside gold, it is now the main line of defence against the looming financial crisis,” Thielen said.
What on-chain metrics say
On-chain data point to further upside potential. The NUPL metric for long-term holders stands at 0.69, below the euphoria threshold of 0.75. In the previous cycle the market spent 228 days above that level; in the current one—only 30.
While $BTC has made a new ATH above $118K, Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) remains below the euphoria zone, currently at 0.69. This cycle has seen just ~30 days above the 0.75 threshold, compared to 228 days in the previous cycle. pic.twitter.com/qFEUbmK7r3
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 11, 2025
Activity on the bitcoin network also remains moderate. The average number of daily transactions has risen to 364,000, still well below the 530,000–666,000 peaks seen at past market tops.
Over the past two days, the daily average number of transactions in the network has increased by 24K from the 340K mark to 364K. The current level of 364K transactions still significantly lags behind the 2023-2024 peaks (530K-666K).
Essentially, holders are reacting calmly to… pic.twitter.com/v6rRxgH9lE
— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) July 11, 2025
“There are no signs of active coin selling in the market. This reinforces both the fundamental and technical bullish signal,” explained analyst Axel Adler Jr.
According to CryptoQuant, accumulator addresses that only buy bitcoin have increased activity by 71% over the past month. They now hold 250,000 BTC—the highest since 2024.
Analysts’ forecasts
Experts expect the uptrend to continue. Lucas forecasts a move to the $125,000–$128,000 range in the near term. Jeff Mei, chief operating officer of the BTSE exchange, believes the price will reach $125,000 within one to two months.
A more optimistic outlook was offered by OSL’s chief commercial officer, Eugene Chung. In his view, the asset could rise to $130,000–$150,000 by year-end.
Ledn CEO John Glover said bitcoin will reach $136,000 by the end of the year. He believes the rally in the leading cryptocurrency has the foundation to continue.
Breaking recent highs, he said, confirmed the end of the corrective move. Glover views June’s drop to $96,000 as a pullback of “wave (ii)” within a larger “wave 5”.
The Ledn chief noted that the ultimate target for the end of the bull cycle has not changed, but the timeline has shortened.
“I previously expected this in the first quarter of 2026, but now it looks like we will reach $136,000 by the end of the year,” he explained.
Bitcoin closed the second quarter up 30%.