Media put Telegram’s value in 2022 at between $2.2 billion and $124 billion

One of Telegram’s convertible-bond placement agents, VTB Capital, estimated the company’s potential value in 2022 at a range from $2.2 billion to $124 billion. сообщает VTimes.

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The wide spread of figures is explained by the investment bank comparing the messenger with Google, Facebook, Twitter, Snap and Slack across various parameters.

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The $2.2 billion valuation was arrived at by using the EV/Sales multiple — the ratio of a company’s value to its sales.

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Source: VTB Capital

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The $124 billion figure is based on EV/DAU, which shows the value assigned per daily active user.

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Source: VTB Capital

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“VTB Capital” forecasts that Telegram will grow faster than the market, but applies a discount to the peer group to emphasise Telegram’s lack of operating history, its unproven business model and potential lag in profitability relative to rivals.

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Telegram’s revenue by the end of 2022, according to the bank’s estimates, is expected to be about $200 million.

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The analysts at VTB Capital also described the bond-conversion scheme in the event of the company’s potential IPO:

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• If the IPO occurs earlier than three years, the bonds will be converted into shares at a 10% discount;

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• If it occurs later than three years but before four years, at a 15% discount;

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• If later than four years, the discount will be 20%.

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Another placement agent is the investment group Aton, according to VTB Capital’s materials.

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One of the placement participants told VTimes that Telegram has been taking bids since March 8. The main bidding period ends on March 10.

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Earlier in February, Kommersant reported plans for Telegram разместить облигации на $1 млрд for a select group of investors.

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In January, The Information reported private talks by Pavel Durov with banks and investors about raising $1 billion through a convertible-bond issue and Telegram’s planned IPO. Later, Durov himself partially refuted the information, noting that his team had indeed received loan proposals from financial institutions.

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In the same month, Durov, according to The Bell, rejected a proposal from a consortium of Western funds to buy 5–10% of the company, based on a $30 billion valuation.

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In early March, Forbes reported that investors from the Da Vinci Capital fund notified Pavel Durov of the intention to file a lawsuit against the Telegram Open Network (TON) companies linked to the blockchain project. The amount of compensation varies across sources – about $100 million and $20 million.

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