Peter Brandt sees scope for bitcoin to reach $185,000

Glassnode says 97% of bitcoin supply is in profit after the recent rally

The first cryptocurrency could enter “uncharted price territory” if it does not top out in the coming days, technical analyst Peter Brandt told Cointelegraph.

“It is entirely reasonable to expect the peak of the bull phase at any moment,” he said, citing classic cycle theory.

He explained that 533 days passed from the bitcoin cycle low on 9 November 2022 to the halving on 20 April 2024.

“If you add those 533 days to the [block reward] halving date, you get just last week,” he stressed.

That date fell on 5 October. The following day, digital gold set a new price record above $126,000. But there is a wrinkle: according to Brandt, the strongest trends are born when the market breaks out of its usual cycles.

He put the odds of the classic scenario at 50%. Still, he remains bullish and hopes for a countercyclical move, expecting bitcoin to rise “well beyond $150,000 and higher, with scope to move to $185,000”.

“Sooner or later everything changes. However, betting against a cycle with an impeccable 3:0 track record should be done with extreme caution,” Brandt warned.

In 2025, the debate over whether bitcoin’s cycle theory still holds has flared anew. In July, the analyst known as Rekt Capital suggested that, by analogy with 2020, the peak could come in October.

Not everyone agrees. In the summer, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the classic model has lost its relevance, citing growing institutional influence on the crypto market.

Later, the “death” of bitcoin cycles was confirmed by Bitwise’s chief investment officer. Analysts at K33 share a similar view. In their words, bitcoin’s moves now depend on large investors and macro policy rather than halving-linked patterns.

Rise or fall?

At the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency trades around $123,000. Over the past 24 hours the price is up 0.1%, and 3.5% on the week, according to CoinGecko.

Trader Tony Severino noted that a classic volatility gauge — the Bollinger Bands — has reached record “compression” on weekly charts. This typically precedes a strong price move.

Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands recently hit record tightness

For now, BTCUSD has failed to break out above the upper band with strength

According to past local consolidation ranges, it could take as long as 100+ days to get a valid breakout (or breakdown, if BTC dumps… pic.twitter.com/uCpcxvKzX1

— Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) October 8, 2025

He said the decisive moment will be a break of the upper or lower band.

“Experience from past consolidations shows that a true breakout (or breakdown) can take more than 100 days. The key signal is a clear thrust on a long candle,” he warned.

Severino added that exits from “squeeze” phases are often accompanied by false signals. He did not rule out that bitcoin’s burst to $126,000 was one such move.

“Another fake breakdown to the downside is not out of the question before the trend finally turns higher. This scenario could either trigger a parabolic rise in the cryptocurrency or put an end to the three-year bull trend,” the trader concluded.

Potential pullback to $117,000

Glassnode analysts noted that after the recent rally, 97% of bitcoin’s supply is “in profit”.

Realized profit remains muted. This, they said, “speaks to orderly rotation rather than sell pressure”. Such dynamics are typical of a healthy bull market, where profit-taking is balanced by fresh demand.

They did not rule out a correction to the $117,000 support, where investors acquired about 190,000 BTC. However, a renewed upswing could follow any pullback.

“While entering uncharted price territories always carries the risk of a correction, a pullback to $117,000 could become a catalyst for a rally. Investors who bought in this zone are likely to defend their profitable positions, creating a strong platform for the uptrend to resume,” Glassnode explained.

Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts said that bitcoin retains upside potential because the market is not yet overheated.