QCP Warns of Potential Bitcoin Drop to $107,000 and Ethereum to $3,300

Correction may lead Bitcoin to $107,000 and Ethereum to $3,300, say QCP Capital analysts.

The cryptocurrency market remains under pressure: a continued correction could pave the way to recent lows of $107,000 for digital gold and $3,300 for ether, according to analysts at QCP Capital. 

“American stocks sharply declined in the past session, while Chinese stocks showed relative resilience,” the experts noted. 

However, they observed that institutional demand remains strong. Over the past day, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to $241 million, breaking a two-day streak of outflows. 

“The trend of buying at lows persists. In the options market, call contracts with a strike price of $118,000 dominate,” the analysts emphasized.

As the fourth quarter begins, historically considered more favorable, markets are experiencing moderate optimism due to lenient credit conditions. 

“Participants expect two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December. If next week’s non-farm payroll data does not exceed forecasts, this scenario will likely remain in place,” concluded QCP Capital.

Market Adopts a Wait-and-See Approach

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the MVRV Z-Score “has dropped to the base zone.”

MVRV Z-Score (365D) has dropped to the base zone and holds at −0.3 with a downward bias.

This means that market capitalization is trading close to “fair” value relative to realized price adjusted for annual volatility: there is no overheating, valuation is… pic.twitter.com/AH229s9L2e

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) September 25, 2025

The metric holds at −0.3 “with a downward bias.”

“This means that market capitalization is close to ‘fair’ value relative to the realized price considering annual volatility. There is no overheating, and the valuation appears neutral or moderately ‘cheap’ compared to last year,” explained the specialist.

In a conversation with The Block, BRN researcher Timothy Mizir noted that a “Double Bottom” reversal pattern is visible on the Bitcoin chart, with a support level near $111,115.

“It’s a market full of ‘ifs,’” the specialist remarked. “If the pattern holds, if ETF flows stabilize, if ETH returns to its range.”

According to his observations, the nearest resistance is at $115,000. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics indicate a risk of prices falling into the $90,000-105,000 range. 

Mizir described the $4,000 level for Ethereum as “fragile”—if it fails, the price could retreat to $3,600-3,800. 

At the time of publication, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $111,212 (-1.8% for the day), and ether is near $3,960 (-5.2%), according to CoinGecko.

As reported by Glassnode, researchers noted a weakening demand for Bitcoin.

They identified the cost basis of short-term holders ($111,400) as a key support level for digital gold.