This is mentioned in a Blockware Intelligence study: broad adoption of the first cryptocurrency could occur faster than past innovations and reach 10% by 2030.
Analysts studied the historical adoption curves of autos, electricity, the Internet and social networks, as well as the pace of Bitcoin adoption since 2009.
«All breakthrough technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve, […] but new network technologies continue to be adopted much faster than the market expects», the report says.
Based on the metric “Aggregate Net Growth of Enterprises” and the projected annual growth rate of Bitcoin at 60%, analysts concluded that its global adoption “will exceed 10% by 2030.” Blockware Intelligence attributes this to the current macroeconomic environment, internet access, and the prospect of quick profits.
Data: Blockware Intelligence.
«From a consumer perspective, past technologies had incentives for adoption tied to convenience and efficiency […]. However, it is hard to measure the direct monetary value obtained from becoming an early adopter of some of these technologies. With Bitcoin, direct financially incentivized adoption creates a game-theory scenario in which the best response for everyone is to adopt the asset», the analysts explained.
But Blockware emphasised that the model used at this stage is merely a concept and not investment advice.
Earlier, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone predicted widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies in the United States in 2022. In his view, this would be aided by the winding down of the Fed’s emergency stimulus amid rising inflation and a tight labor market.
In February Wells Fargo analysts compared the development of breakthrough technologies with digital assets. They concluded that the latter have not yet passed the “tipping point,” after which explosive mass adoption of innovations would begin.
Most of Bitstamp’s institutional investors surveyed said that they expect widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies within the next ten years.
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