PancakeSwap Introduces a Rival to Polymarket

PancakeSwap and YZi Labs back Probable, a prediction market on BNB Chain.

DEX PancakeSwap and YZi Labs have backed the prediction market platform Probable. The project is preparing for its launch on the BNB Chain network.

We’re excited to support the incubation of @0xProbable, an onchain prediction market built on @BNBCHAIN, alongside @yzilabs.

gProbablehttps://t.co/xwfeWsYQQL https://t.co/VF9upbrsKg pic.twitter.com/urgvVzZQCH

— PancakeSwap (@PancakeSwap) December 16, 2025

A key feature of the platform will be the absence of fees at launch. Probable will allow users to bet on cryptocurrency price movements, sports events, global news, and specific regional markets.

Transactions will be settled in USDT. The developers have simplified the entry process: users can deposit any token, and the protocol will automatically convert it into a stablecoin.

The oracle UMA is responsible for data verification and dispute resolution. This technology ensures transparent settlements and protects markets from manipulation.

PancakeSwap acts as an incubator. The exchange’s team assists the project with scaling and strategy, although Probable will remain an independent product.

The full release date will be announced later.

Gemini and the Prediction Market

The Gemini exchange, owned by the Winklevoss brothers, has launched access to the Gemini Predictions betting platform. The service is now operational in all 50 US states.

Introducing Gemini Predictions, now live across all 50 US states 🇺🇲

Users can trade on outcomes of real world events with near instant execution and full transparency. pic.twitter.com/1wRhkLCEG5

— Gemini (@Gemini) December 15, 2025

The launch was conducted through Gemini Titan, a subsidiary. The company received a license from the CFTC to offer such services in America. Regulatory approval allows the exchange to legally offer users derivatives on the outcomes of future events.

This new product is part of a strategy to create a “super app.” Gemini plans to integrate cryptocurrency trading, staking, tokenized stocks, and prediction markets into a single interface.

Context

The prediction platform sector experienced explosive growth in 2024, following the successes of Polymarket and Kalshi. Major players, including Coinbase, Robinhood, and MetaMask, have already shown interest in this area.

Earlier this month, Trust Wallet, owned by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, added a section for trading on prediction markets to its interface. Later, the businessman announced predict.fun, a new platform based on BNB Chain.

The main issue in the segment remains regulatory uncertainty. For instance, in 2024, Kalshi faced pressure from the CFTC. The Commission attempted to prevent the platform from launching prediction markets on the outcomes of the November elections. In May 2025, the parties reached a settlement.

Back in November, Galaxy founder Mike Novogratz revealed that the company is in talks with Polymarket and Kalshi to provide market-making services.