The prediction platform Polymarket has partnered with the analytics service Kaito AI. The companies will launch ‘attention markets’ that allow users to bet on social media trends, reports Forbes.
This new tool relies on data from X, TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube. Kaito AI’s algorithms track two key metrics:
- mindshare — the ‘share of attention’ or frequency of mentions;
- sentiment — the tone of statements (positive or negative).
Users will be able to trade contracts by predicting public opinion. Examples of markets include: ‘Will Anthropic’s mentions surpass OpenAI’s next month?’ or ‘Will audience loyalty to Elon Musk increase?’
The full launch is scheduled for early March. Initially, dozens of markets related to artificial intelligence will appear. Later, categories covering entertainment and global events will be added. By the end of the year, the partners plan to open thousands of such contracts.
In a test phase, Polymarket launched two pilot markets back in November. The betting pool predicting the platform’s own media presence growth by 2026 has already exceeded $1.3 million.
Kaito’s head, Yu Hu, believes that the combination of aggregator data and trading activity will provide a more accurate assessment of public opinion than traditional surveys.
Jump Trading and Prediction Markets
According to sources from Bloomberg, the prop trading company Jump Trading has agreed to acquire stakes in Kalshi and Polymarket. In return, the firm will provide liquidity to the platforms.
The deals are structured in a venture model — Jump receives assets in exchange for trading resources. The terms vary:
- in Kalshi, the firm will receive a fixed share of stock;
- the stake in Polymarket will grow proportionally to the trading capacity Jump provides for the exchange’s operations in the US.
Earlier, on February 1, the liquidity aggregator Jupiter based on Solana integrated Polymarket.