Prediction Markets Doubt Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 by Year-End

Bitcoin unlikely to hit $100,000 by year-end, say prediction markets.

Many users of prediction platforms are convinced that the first cryptocurrency will end the year below the psychological mark of $100,000.

As of December 12, the corresponding probability on Kalshi stands at just 42%:

A similar figure on Polymarket is 39%.

At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $92,230, according to CoinGecko. The last time quotes were above the “round mark” was on November 13.

The asset’s growth is restrained by several factors, including macroeconomic uncertainty and a slowdown in the pace of corporate reserve accumulation.

Data from Capriole Investments indicates a decline in activity among “treasury” companies. This may suggest a depletion of institutional demand.

On the other hand, Polymarket users assess the probability of Strategy selling bitcoins by the end of the year as extremely low—about 1%.

Last week, Michael Saylor’s company increased its reserves to 660,624 BTC, purchasing an additional 10,624 BTC for approximately $962.7 million.

Preparing for a $98,000 Surge?

An analyst known as Daan Crypto Trades noted that quotes are once again testing resistance near the year’s opening price.

In his view, breaking and consolidating above $94,000 would pave the way to $108,000—the calculated target of the “Triangle” pattern.

However, the expert suggested that growth might be limited to a retest of the former support zone around $98,000, where a significant volume of liquidity is concentrated.

As reported, analysts at Coinbase Institutional predicted a rise in Bitcoin in December. They believe the November correction laid the groundwork for a market recovery by year-end.