Researchers Uncover ‘Largest Military Insider’ on Polymarket

Nine accounts on Polymarket earned over $2.4M from U.S. military action bets.

A network of nine interconnected accounts on Polymarket has been discovered, having earned over $2.4 million from bets related to U.S. military actions. The suspicious activity was identified by the analytical platform Bubblemaps.

NEW | 🇺🇸 The biggest military insider?

A cluster of accounts made $2.4M betting on US military action with a 98% win rate

No one spotted him before 🧵 pic.twitter.com/rsdjObZ9md

— Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) May 18, 2026

The win rate of these wallets was 98%.

Analysts used transaction visualization and discovered a cluster of four wallets created days before the U.S. strikes on Iran on February 28. These accounts bet on events with low odds, each earning about $400,000.

Later, experts linked them to five more addresses based on the timing of trades and the size of positions. All nine accounts transferred funds through centralized exchanges within narrow time frames to common wallets.

The group exhibited abnormal confidence in event outcomes. Large bets were placed days before:

• the attack on Iran on February 28;
• the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei;
• the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

To maximize profits, account holders spread bets across different dates. To divert attention, they made small losing trades.

Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of Bubblemaps, noted in an interview with 60 Minutes that the group is almost entirely focused on U.S. military operation markets and consistently dominates the profit leaderboards.

“We spotted nine Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made, collectively,$2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations,” says Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of the small data analytics firm Bubblemaps.

“And now here’s the crazy part: 98% win rate.”… pic.twitter.com/YQmRSn30UW

— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) May 17, 2026

Bubblemaps lacks direct evidence linking these wallets to specific individuals or agencies. However, the contact structure and near-perfect success rate “raise serious questions about who is behind them.”

In April, the U.S. Department of Justice charged active-duty serviceman Gannon Kane Van Dyke, suspected of using classified information for betting on Polymarket.