Trader cites reasons for pessimism in Bitcoin price

A veteran trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, explains the current market situation.

Bitcoin price has exited local overbought conditions, forming the UT pattern, which argues for a downside (after liquidity was captured on stop orders for short positions).

An attempt to resume buying on the daily time frame at the time of writing appears unlikely. Yesterday’s session closed with a narrow spread and minimal volume, with no progress from the bulls.

In the 4-hour time frame, we observe a very unconvincing move by buyers into the sell zone of $11,950–$12,250, which signals a high probability of a continuation of the decline from that range. Supporting this scenario is the weakening reaction from point ‘C’. Most likely, the weekend will see tepid buying with a subsequent return of bearish activity.

Horizontal volume analysis

Globally we see a very clear picture of a looming repositioning that will push prices down to $11,000. To complete the model, it is necessary to hold $11,900, where the previous high-volume cluster sits, which we can already classify as selling.

Medium-term, they fell to the core of August. As the drop occurred, defensive elements appeared, expressed in an elevated selling delta and liquidity spikes. No further reaction followed — buyers recovered weakly, and control again rests with the sellers.

Locally, on the rebound, retail traders began actively opening long positions, but during the recent range those positions were closed, indicating extreme uncertainty among buyers. A local support also stands out, which has every chance of pushing quotes higher, thereby preserving balance.

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