Trader Foresees Bitcoin Rising Above $25,000

The current market situation is explained by a practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Shaman project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.

A month has passed since the last overview. In that time, the expected rise occurred, as indicated by both sentiment and technical analyses. Let us consider what to expect next.

Technical Analysis

First, the key point to note is that Bitcoin crossed the important BOS level of $22 800. The breakthrough of this extreme in the medium term signals a weakening of selling pressure after almost two years of a bear market.

For about a week the first cryptocurrency has been trading in a tight range $23 400-22 300. After the second wave of growth there is no pullback; the price remains near its local highs. There is no seller defending his short positions.

For five months, starting in June, the price traded in a wide sideways accumulation of $18 400-22 300. The two recent waves of growth did not merely return the price to this range; they impulsively breached it and helped establish above it. This is a very strong bullish sign.

There is no mounting selling pressure, according to volume. The market is rising, volume is not. No one is restraining the price. At the culmination of movement one would expect peak volume, which is not even close.

Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment analysis has long been an integral part of market analyses. It was this method that indicated Bitcoin should fall from $22 000 and set a new bottom, and then — that the market should rise from $16 000 to above $20 000.

At the moment, it can be stated that the opinions of 10 crypto bloggers are split 50/50. Many continue to believe that the current rise is a short-squeeze, a false breakout. Some are trying to go long the market. According to this metric, there is no overbought condition.

Analysis of 15 paid (VIP) Telegram channels showed that opinions were also split evenly. Some try to short this rally, others stay on the sidelines because they do not understand what is happening. There is no greed or overboughtness.

According to keyword metrics, selling activity remains high.

On the chart of liquidations, things are calm; peak liquidations are absent. This can be explained by the fact that the main crowd is currently outside the market and does not know what to do. Because the movement was too impulsive, the majority of players could not enter anywhere.

The appearance of the first peak liquidations would indicate that the crowd is returning to the market. It will go long as events, news and the “green prices” begin to push all those who missed the main waves of growth.

A more detailed recent study of market sentiment can be found here.

Conclusions

There is no point in weighing up events, bankruptcies, scandals, layoffs, the Fed’s rate and other developments. The notable behaviour of the news cycle showed itself at around ~$16,000, when the information space was flooded with negativity, pushing a large portion of the crowd to stay out of the market.

The medium-term analysis has performed well and is likely to continue doing so. There is no overheating in the market, no large seller activity. Expect a small pullback — within the range of $23 400-22 300 — and then a rise. The nearest target is to breach the $25 000 mark and move higher.

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