A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, explains the current market situation.
In previous analysis, we outlined two scenarios for Bitcoin’s price development. At present, the market is testing the ‘green scenario’, which envisaged the formation of a ‘compression’ pattern beneath a key high-volume selling level.
The cryptocurrency formed a substantial accumulation under the $59 900 level within the $58 500-$59 300 range. Typically, the development of a trading range ahead of the resistance zone presages a breakout above this level.
Moreover, on March 31 we could observe the so-called ‘helicopter’ — a manipulation in both directions.
Assessing the strength of the impulse, as well as the subsequent reaction in the form of a return to balance and a loss of initiative by sellers, which is clearly traceable through the cumulative delta analysis, one may assert that this accumulation was formed precisely to build long positions.
Additionally, the impulsive widening of the range to the upside further positions the trading range. At present, we can observe a smooth correction toward the volume core, peaking at $58 990.
It is precisely in this zone that we expect renewed buying and a move in price toward a local and, possibly, an all-time high.
Invalidation of the buy scenario would be the price’s inability after testing POC to establish a new high, as well as continued rotations within the $58,500-$59,300 range.
Consideration of any short positions would only arise upon an impulsive breach of the entire balance and a close below $58,420.
Under such a development, the yellow scenario from the previous analysis is most likely to play out — a test of the maximum-volume of the global balance at $56,000. However, whether a renewed uptrend from that level can be judged only in real time, so do not blindly place limit orders.