Trader outlines Bitcoin’s growth prospects for February

A practicing trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project, Nikita Semov, discusses the current market situation.

The week’s movement amounted to 32.15% from the high to the low of the bar. This is the average volatility, considering the fluctuations over the past month.

The price failed to cover a significant distance from open to close. This means that the bulls are no longer dominating the moment.

Volume is rising, but not anomalous, average relative to previous fluctuations. The delta highlights a weakening of selling interest, which has substantially faded. Supply is gradually leaving the market, but adequate demand has not yet appeared.

The largest volume level is $31,800. A large amount of volume has traded there, and major market participants are interested in these marks.

As long as the price has not moved significantly lower with a consolidation, the long bias remains. The $34,200 zone is the area of secondary activity. A consolidation above this level would open the road to $37,000 — the stopping-volume level from which the price correction began.

Volume on the weekly horizontal profile is distributed toward the lows. This indicates a higher probability of a long-term upside move.

The delta shows that the $31,200 level repeatedly served as a zone of ineffective selling (a large buyer is operating with limit orders). These levels are also of interest to whales.

In the upper part of the bar, there is essentially no seller. Consequently, sizable selling is not expected as long as the price stays above $31,200–$31,800. The long bias remains strictly in the long term, with allowance for downward manipulation squeezes to trigger stops and to build liquidity among long-position retail traders.

Key levels are $42,170 on the upside and $27,830 on the downside. The price is currently trapped in this sideways range.

On the weekly timeframe, the favored scenario is to add to the position and continue higher with the trend. However, this is unlikely to be the week’s outlook, probably only for February. In the longer term, the outlook remains bullish.

Daily Timeframe

Price Action analysis indicates new highs and an upward-trending structure in which the price resides. The chances of seeing the same level of volatility this week as last are slim. The AB wave is rather protracted, with a weak angle of attack from sellers.

A large cluster of selling volume was observed at $34,200. There is also a very strong level at $37,000; once breached, a higher high beyond point E is highly likely.

The vertical delta clearly shows fading selling. The vertical histogram shows volumes dropping as the price moves downward — no support from bears.

The delta indicates heavy buying in the lower part of the sideways accumulation. At $42,000 there were neither clusters nor large sells — no activity from bears.

What to expect from the current week?

Below is a four-hour chart. It shows the price effectively trapped in a range.

At the bottom: $31,800–$31,200 and clusters. Delta shows large-scale buying and the POC of the total accumulation. At the top, two important levels — $34,200 and $37,000. From each of them there is a high chance of a correction, and its nature warrants close watching.

Scenario 1. If price closes above $37,000, we aim to push to a new high. Initially a long was planned on breaking $34,800. However the entire bullish bar was immediately sold off and driven back into balance. Consequently, long entries may be triggered from $37,000.

Scenario 2. If it breaks through $31,200, we would see a fairly deep correction down to $23,500.

Until either condition is met, the price will remain range-bound and look for medium-term long and short positions.

Subscribe to ForkLog news on Telegram: ForkLog FEED — the full news feed, ForkLog — the most important news and polls.