Trader Outlines Potential New Wave of Bitcoin Price Decline

On the current market situation, a practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.

Yesterday Bitcoin almost touched a local bottom, but then rebounded nicely. Now prices are attempting to form arguments in favour of a rally. We will try to assess the near-term price targets.

The character of yesterday’s impulse is worth looking at. Firstly, the rebound volume is minimal. For comparison, the volumes of previous corrections that led to substantial gains are highlighted. There has also been no engulfing of the last wave of selling, which began around $20,200.

The three-month accumulation has formed an LH&LL structure with a new low at $18,200.

If we analyse the two-month rebound, it was very weak compared with the selling wave. The rate of decline from $30,000 is not comparable with the subsequent move back to $25,000.

What does the three-month movement look like in the context of volume behaviour? For two months the price attempted to form a rebound, and the largest volume occurred at the top. The subsequent decline has been working off the accumulated volume.

In the context of simple Price Action, the situation is also not particularly rosy. Red zones highlight daily selling bars. The depth of the fall remains (10% of movement), while volumes on the second bar are significantly higher. This indicates growing seller aggressiveness.

Let us not forget the situation around the S&P 500, which is described in detail in the previous обзоре. There are no signs of buyers whatsoever. The last rally was absorbed by the index. There are no volumes signaling a serious attempt at a meaningful rebound.

Summing up the above, the Bitcoin situation is complex. Much points to the likelihood of testing the year’s low around $17,600 (about 10% below current levels). It should be understood that beneath this level lies a large amount of liquidity.

The chance of moving even deeper—into the $15,000 area—remains fairly high.

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