Trader points to indicators of a bearish Bitcoin trend

A practising trader and founder of the Crypto Mentors project Никита Семов describes the current market situation.

Bar-by-bar analysis

The spread on the current bar is large relative to previous purchases, but fairly small compared with the selling volume that has appeared.

Purchases resume on very weak volume. In the context of the weekly timeframe this suggests a lack of interest from a major buyer to push the price higher.

Progress is also measurable among historical buyers—and there is none. However, a bear could emerge from the sell zone (I expect it to resume from 0.5).

The expectation for the current week is a close on a down bar. According to candlestick analysis, the global pattern \”Tower\” remains unchanged. Locally we have formed the \”Takuri\” pattern. We expect the week to close with a downward candle.

Price Action + VSA

The current mode of price declines is far from satisfactory. We remain in a selling zone, and the price action suggests that sellers do not have as much firepower as initially anticipated.

From the present behaviour, a pullback to $10,750 could not be ruled out; after that, consolidation and further downside are possible.

A sharp return to balance would be classified as an SP pattern, and accordingly the temporal priority would shift toward longs.

Analysis of Horizontal Volumes and Delta

In the context of the broader picture, volumes around $11,000 are finally starting to play out. A much more impulsive and sharp reaction was expected, but the price slowdown, and the delta control shifting to the seller, indicate protection of these levels, which somewhat completes the BUI-BTI pattern.

From a long-term perspective, the priority remains bearish, down to $9,200.

Locally, the current impulse has carried us below all meaningful volume clusters of last week. This points to selling priority when testing these levels.

However, on a breakdown of the last major volume cluster at $10,670, protection setups began forming through both volumes and through inefficiency elements. One can also add a sharp drop in open interest.

Taken together, this indicates a likelihood of a correction to the $10,775-$10,850 range, after which a renewed bearish trend can be expected.

Important Note

A clear selling bias will be maintained only if there is a smooth correction toward the levels above.

A sharp return to balance, specifically a close above $10,850, would be classified as a false breakout, and in that case the tactical component of the analysis would need to be reconsidered.

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