A Trader Explains Which Bitcoin Price Levels to Watch

A practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Mentors, Nikita Semov, discusses the current market situation.

Markets tend to repeat formations. There is a sense that the current consolidation resembles May’s, but with lower volatility and a shorter duration.

The logic of such ranges is very similar: a Shake Out after a rise that sweeps away long positions’ stops, accumulation in the gray zone near extremes, unsuccessful selling, and then a sharp rise that breaks local highs, which will mark a more global upthrust. Partial or full duplication of the previous scenario cannot be ruled out.

Bar-by-bar Analysis

On the daily chart, compare bar “A” and bar “B” (blue triangles). The pace of closes is clearly weakening—this is linked to a softer selling pressure. Buyer-wave progress, by contrast, is rising, as we reach the same values more quickly, though from the same point the local revival signals a modest weakening of selling. From the horizontal at $12 160 there may be some bear reaction, but no strong impulses are expected. The primary long scenario is long-biased with some correction from the panic level. The big players in this range are loading into longs, and the price signals this.

Analysis of Horizontal Volumes

After a promising breakout from balance, the move did not continue, creating a local volume cluster to support it. At the time of writing we are hovering within accumulation, but globally the picture still looks not so promising for longs.

The most important resistance at the moment is the zone $11,980-$12,025, from which significant selling could begin. Clearing it would open a clear path to gains with new highs beyond 2019. At present, we can observe rotations within the range $11,570-$11,800 with breakouts, which are typical for weekends.

Delta Analysis

At the moment there is no clear dominance by either side, which is typical for a sideways accumulation. We can identify the zone $11,735-$11,770, actively defended by sellers, and without overcoming it further upside movement during the current day seems unlikely.

Conclusions

The odds of an upside breakout from the range are currently higher than a downside breakout. However, tactical reaction tools do not yet provide unambiguous interpretations or signals. We are watching the zones $11,980-$12,025 and $10,935-$11,000.

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