On September 30 the US government shut down for the first time since 2018. Bitcoin rose 3.2%, breaching $116,000.
The shutdown stems from a lack of agreement between Republicans and Democrats on health-care funding.
As a result, around 750,000 federal employees were placed on unpaid furlough and some government offices were closed, Associated Press noted.
As USA Today writes, US President Donald Trump said the shutdown would bring “a lot of good”. In his words, it will help “get rid of” Democratic Party policy.
According to The Economist, the current shutdown may have the following consequences:
- delays in the publication of key economic indicators such as employment and inflation;
- more complicated decisions on the policy rate of the Fed;
- a short-term rise in unemployment.
The previous US government shutdown began on December 22, 2018 and lasted until January 25, 2019 — 35 days. It was the longest in more than 40 years, CNN noted. That shutdown also occurred during Mr Trump’s presidency.
According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, it cost the United States about $3bn in lost GDP. According to calculations by analytical resource The Kobeissi Letter, the current shutdown will cost the US budget around $400m a day.
The US government shutdown:
For the first time since 2018, the US is about to enter a government shutdown and investors are bracing for it.
This would furlough 750,000 workers PER DAY, costing ~$400M in daily compensation.
What does it all mean? Let us explain.
(a thread) pic.twitter.com/oewTTeOATc
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 30, 2025
Earlier, experts assessed the shutdown’s impact on the crypto market, predicting a brief correction. Digital assets, however, rose.
What is happening in the crypto market?
Over the past 24 hours the total value of digital assets increased by 3.2% to $4.09trn. All top-10 cryptocurrencies by market value rose.
Dogecoin, Solana and Ethereum led the daily gains.
At the time of writing bitcoin is trading around $116,400. According to Glassnode, the leading cryptocurrency’s dominance has increased from 57% to 59%.
“This reversion to the mean points to a healthier market structure, as bitcoin-led rallies have historically proved more durable than altcoin-driven moves,” analysts noted.
Some community members pointed out that three of the past five US government shutdowns coincided with a rally in bitcoin. In their view, this time is no exception.
🚨 BREAKING: US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN ODDS TOMORROW: 84%
IT SEEMS LIKE A US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS IMMINENT NOW.
Historically, 3/5 shutdowns or shutdown threats triggered a $BTC pump. pic.twitter.com/DqJjOPeGNu
— AlΞx Wacy 🌐 (@wacy_time1) September 30, 2025
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe expects the current rise to continue. On October 1 bitcoin, he said, tested key support at $112,000 before bouncing. He called it the start of another bull rally.
There has been a quick retest of the $112K region and an immediate bounce upwards.
Strong performance of #Bitcoin and I think that we’re in for a bullish month and quarter.
Q4 has started, good times are ahead of us. pic.twitter.com/IyXsDR6tdU
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 1, 2025
“Bitcoin is showing strong performance, and in my view we are in for a bullish month and quarter,” he wrote.
Investor Ted Pillows noted that the next key resistance lies around $117,500. If surpassed, digital gold “may start moving to a new all-time high”.
The expert also pointed to two sizeable liquidity clusters in bitcoin now:
- the first in the $107,000-108,000 area, with $8bn in long liquidations;
- the second at $118,000-119,000 with $7bn in short liquidations.
$BTC has 2 decent liquidity clusters right now.
One around the $107,000-$108,000 level, which has $8 billion in long liquidations.
The other is around the $118,000-$119,000 level, which has $7 billion in short liquidations.
Which one do you think will happen first? pic.twitter.com/8dBuyQMoUj
— Ted (@TedPillows) October 1, 2025
The analyst known as Daan Crypto Trades stressed that bitcoin has moved towards the top of a bull-flag channel and is attempting a breakout.
$BTC Made its way towards the top of the channel/bull flag and is attempting a break out.
The $112K is a key short term support going forward. Ideally don’t want to see price re-visit that.
Up to the bulls to take it from here, a proper breakout & some daily closes above the… https://t.co/WIEDjawZrq pic.twitter.com/z7MmiCJtBD
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) October 1, 2025
“The $112,000 level is now a key short-term support. In an ideal scenario, price should not revisit this mark. It is up to the bulls from here: a proper breakout and a few daily closes above the channel boundary will be my signal that the market is ready to move to new highs,” the expert said.
Earlier, analysts forecast Uptober despite fear signals.