The historical four-year cycle of Bitcoin has concluded, suggesting a prolonged downturn for the cryptocurrency next year, according to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity.
While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025
Nonetheless, he emphasized his continued bullish outlook on the long-term prospects of the leading cryptocurrency.
The expert believes that the digital gold reaching a historical peak above $126,000 in October might have marked the top of the current cycle “both in price and time.”
“Bitcoin may well have completed another four-year cycle phase post-halving. Crypto winters typically lasted about a year, so in my view, 2026 will be a ‘year of rest’,” he wrote.
Timmer added that support for the asset lies between $65,000 and $75,000.
Not Everyone Agrees
The macro analyst’s conclusions contradict the prevailing industry view on the “death” of Bitcoin’s four-year cycles. A number of experts believe that this theory is no longer relevant due to the influx of institutional investors into the market.
Companies Bitwise and Grayscale in their forecasts for the next year noted that they expect new price records for the cryptocurrency. Analysts believe this will be driven by:
- increased inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs;
- rising global demand for alternative stores of value;
- further improvement in the regulatory environment in the US.
Delphi Digital co-founder Tom Shaughnessy is also confident in a rally for digital gold in 2026.
My crypto thesis is simple
Crypto’s fundamental progress (Wall Street, Regulatory, Protocols, all of it) is very strong. We are working through a one-time disastrous 10/10 liquidation event that broke the market. Once thats worked through we hit $BTC ATHs in 2026 as prices… https://t.co/TkivG2PEN0
— Tommy (@Shaughnessy119) December 19, 2025
“We are still experiencing the catastrophic October 10 liquidations that broke the market. Once this is behind us, we will reach new all-time highs,” he wrote.
According to the expert, the crypto market’s dynamics will be determined by the industry’s “fundamental progress,” including growing adoption by Wall Street firms and positive regulatory changes.
However, investor sentiment remains pessimistic. Derivatives supporters have hedged against the risk of Bitcoin falling below $85,000.
Experts from the Checkonchain platform and analyst known as MorenoDV warned of the absence of a “final capitulation” of the leading cryptocurrency.