Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Peak Above $200,000 in 2025

Carmelo Aleman, a contributor to CryptoQuant, has forecasted based on historical patterns that the price of the leading cryptocurrency will reach $205,097, marking the peak of the current market cycle.

According to him, metrics such as MVRV, HODL waves, SOPR, or the dynamics of exchange reserves are useful as they “provide insight into on-chain activities and enable informed decision-making.”

“The constant search for micro-signals to gain insights, while often useful, sometimes distracts from larger cyclical factors that truly influence Bitcoin’s long-term dynamics,” Aleman noted.

The analyst suggests paying attention to the digital gold’s return chart since 2011, which shows a recurring cycle: “three years of growth followed by a year of consolidation, corresponding to the four-year halving rhythm.”

“The significance of the current phase is that, according to this metric, if the characteristic pace of the third year is maintained, Bitcoin could rise by 120% in 2025. Starting from $93,226, the price could reach $205,097, potentially marking the cycle’s peak,” the specialist suggested.

He believes that the continuation of this trend could make 2025 the “third consecutive bullish year,” thus completing another growth phase.

“This thesis is supported by other cyclical indicators, particularly realized capitalization, which continues to move towards new historical highs in 2025,” Aleman emphasized.

The expert added that the annual return chart helps filter out market noise and focus on the cyclical nature of the leading cryptocurrency.

“It clearly shows that beyond micro-metrics and short-term candlestick patterns, there is a structural rhythm that Bitcoin follows with remarkable regularity: three years of growth followed by a year of compression,” the analyst noted.

According to him, the long-term perspective helps investors “remain calm during market fluctuations and better align their actions with the asset’s historical dynamics.”

Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts noted the lack of interest among Bitcoin whales in profit-taking.