Trump, tariffs and bitcoin at $80,000: what is going on with the market?

On January 20, on the eve of the inauguration of US president-elect Donald Trump, bitcoin set a new all-time high, crossing $109,000. Buoyed by campaign rhetoric, the crypto community widely expected the “bullish banquet” to continue.

Yet euphoria soon turned to panic: amid a “critical correction”, the fear index reached levels last seen in May 2022, when the Terra DeFi ecosystem and its token LUNA collapsed. 

Market capitalisation continues to shrink, and analysts describe the mood as a mix of “exhaustion, hopelessness and capitulation”. Many now ask: “Has the bull market ended?” and “How can that be, when bull runs usually last at least another year after the halving?”. 

ForkLog has sought to make sense of the turmoil, gathering expert views and forecasts.

A bear market ahead of schedule?

Bitcoin is often likened to digital gold and marketed as a haven asset. That narrative raises scepticism among many experts. In their view, physical gold still remains the true “safe harbour” for investors, whereas the first cryptocurrency in turbulent periods behaves more like volatile tech stocks.

On March 14 the gold price set a record high, topping $3,000 per troy ounce.

“Right now 1 BTC buys 27.7 ounces of gold. At the peak in 2021 it was 36.3 ounces. That means, in real money, bitcoin’s price has fallen 24%. Thus, the cryptocurrency has been in a stealth bear market for the past three and a half years,” — wrote Euro Pacific Capital president Peter Schiff.

Bitcoin broke support at $80,000 shortly after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on trade with the EU, sharply increasing turbulence and darkening the macro backdrop.

The chart shows price has slipped below the 200-day moving average — the conventional boundary between bull and bear markets. That level now acts as resistance, having flipped from support. One positive is a divergence on the RSI. 

At the time of writing (March 14) the digital gold trades around $85,000, up 4% on the day. Even so, the price remains more than 20% below its ATH. 

Crypto traders expect further declines in March, having accumulated $550m of put options with a $70,000 strike.

“The market is facing significant challenges as the macroeconomic situation deteriorates, and crypto assets are no exception,” said Derive researcher Sean Dawson.

Another headwind has been a multi-day outflow from spot ETFs, widely read as a bearish signal.

Also notable is Ethereum’s behaviour — the coin’s rate against bitcoin fell to its lowest since May 2020, unsettling even long-term HODLers.

It may yet be fine

On the other hand, the downtrend may fade as price approaches the $73,835 level that was broken in November, CoinDesk’s analysts argue.

They observe that since December holders have been taking profits into cash after triple-digit prints. CryptoQuant researchers likewise note waning buy-side pressure since late last year.

“We see that since December demand has been weakening and continues to decline. This indicates that investors are becoming more cautious and, possibly, are shifting to less risky assets amid persistent political and economic uncertainty,” the experts explained.

Even so, none of Coinglass’s bull-market-peak indicators yet signals it is time to sell and take profits (or, for some, perhaps to crystallise losses).

In particular, the MVRV Z-score points to a sizeable distance from the red overbought zone:

Moreover, several indicators flash deep oversold conditions and suggest it may be reasonable to resume active accumulation — for example, the Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart, which has shifted into the “blue” buy zone:

With the market “exhausted”, a natural question arises: will the bull phase return in 2025, and can cryptoassets again approach their previous peaks? 

A definitive answer is hard. According to Copper, the cyclical top will arrive as soon as March 2025. However, CryptoRank’s experts determined that the market will post its strongest readings in October 2025.

Technical analyst Peter Brandt suggested bitcoin could rise to $130,000–$150,000 by Q4 2025 if price continues to follow the trajectory of previous post-halving bull markets.

“If this sequence continues, then the next peak of the bull-market cycle will fall at the end of August — early September 2025,” the expert calculated.

He warned, however, that “no method of analysis is reliable” when it comes to modelling bitcoin’s cycle top.

Matrixport researchers are confident the correction will end in March–April, after which the market will attempt a rally back to prior highs.

Specialists noted the strengthening US dollar amid the US president’s threats to impose tariffs on foreign trade partners, which drains liquidity and weighs on risk assets.

CryptoQuant experts are convinced the market is deeply oversold and “sufficiently weakened” by the lack of “paper” profits for most investors.

As a result, prices just above $80,000 represent a favourable zone for an upswing to form without a further significant drop.

Nansen analyst Aurélie Barter believes a potential correction to $70,000 could be an organic part of the current phase. 

Glassnode specialists identified a fair-value range based on the cost basis of short-term holders: $71,300–$91,900. They see a high probability of a bottom forming within that band, at least in the near term.

“In search of a base for a sustainable recovery” bitcoin may dip below $70,000, allowed Nexo analyst Ilya Kalchev.

Former BitMEX head Arthur Hayes believes the cryptocurrency is highly likely to tumble to that level. In his words, “a 36% correction from the $110,000 high is normal for a bull market.” 

Overall, Hayes is convinced bitcoin remains in a bull run with a $1m target. The main fuel on this path, in his view, will be the “printing press” — close coordination between the US Treasury and the Fed.

Light at the end of the tunnel

Santiment analysts recorded a spike in on-chain stablecoin activity — on March 11, the number of USDT transfers hit a six-month high.

“When activity with USDT and other ‘stable coins’ rises against falling prices, this is a signal: traders are preparing to buy. Additional buy-side pressure supports a recovery in quotations,” the experts explained.

Nansen analysts found a series of “whale” USDC transfers to Coinbase, suggesting big players may be preparing to buy and subsequently lift the market.

Incidentally, the combined capitalisation of stablecoins has already grown so much that it has surpassed Ethereum’s corresponding metric. 

However, CryptoQuant experts still doubt an imminent resumption of a firm uptrend, allowing for a prolonged stagnation. In their view, the market lacks a “powerful demand driver”.

On a longer horizon some link the continuation of the bull market to the prospects for a strategic bitcoin reserve in the US. F2Pool co-founder Shen Yu expects an inflow of new capital into cryptocurrencies in the second half as the role of the new structure becomes clearer.

Conclusions

Despite last year’s bursts of optimism and new ATHs even ahead of the halving, in recent months the crypto market has come under heavy pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting sentiment. The euphoria of campaign speeches and bullish hopes has given way to panic, capital exhaustion and a wholesale move by investors into cash.

Yet through the gloom of the bear-market correction, some brighter notes emerge: several experts point to the likelihood of an “organic” pullback to $70,000 before a renewed rally towards old and new highs. 

The market teeters between fear and hope. On one side lies pressure from global economic instability; on the other, the chances of recovery, supported by institutional interest and bitcoin’s historical patterns. 

One thing is clear: cryptoassets remain highly volatile, and their future will be shaped both by macro forces and by the community’s ability to keep faith in the long-term trend.