K33 Research: AUM in Bitcoin products hits a record as ETF approval looms

AUM in Bitcoin products reached a record 204,170 BTC. K33 Research analysts explained the situation by the approaching deadlines for the Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision on spot ETF based on digital gold.

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In the past month, the metric rose by 27,095 BTC.

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Experts noted that after the SEC’s rejection to approve Hashdex’s and Franklin Templeton’s filings, the emphasis will shift to January 10—the date of the next deadline for review. Analysts are convinced the regulator will approve all proposals, so November 21 is also likely to push back its decision on Global X.

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In such a scenario, momentum in the crypto markets could slow. It will take several weeks to await the key ETF news, — the report said.

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Analysts separately highlighted the situation on the CME, where annual premiums on Bitcoin and Ethereum futures have remained above 15% for the past three weeks.

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Open interest (OI) initially hit a new record of 110,000 BTC and strengthened the lead of the regulated platform after Binance’s move, they added.

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For the first time since August, the Ethereum futures premium surpassed that of Bitcoin-based instruments. According to specialists, this was the market’s reaction to the submission of BlackRock’s application to launch a spot ETF on the second-largest cryptocurrency.

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The odds of approving spot Ethereum ETFs look lower than for analogous Bitcoin instruments due to the technical nuances related to the Grayscale lawsuit against the SEC. However, CME premiums and rising activity are a reliable market signal indicating the relative strength of the second-largest cryptocurrency, — the experts explained.

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Offshore exchanges show no such optimism — funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual contracts have moved into positive territory since November, but shorts remain cautious. The rise in OI is often a prelude to further long liquidations, the experts warned.

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Thus, on November 13, the volume of forced closures of long positions in perpetual contracts reached $89.5 million — the highest since August.

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As reported in November, CoinShares identified more attractive prospects for the growth of the second-largest cryptocurrency among rivals after a survey of fund managers. At the same time, K33 analysts also abandoned a bearish view on Ethereum.

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Earlier, Jeffrey Kendrick, head of research at Standard Chartered, predicted the price rise of the second-largest cryptocurrency to $8,000 by the end of 2026.

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