Trader outlines prospects for Bitcoin price movement

A practicing trader and founder of the project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun explains the current market situation.

S&P 500

We examine the outlook for the stock market in the context of its impact on cryptocurrency.

Currently, prices have moved below the PoC of the prolonged consolidation. On December 13, an UT formed on an uptick in volume. Since the start of the decline, the price has confirmed a downtrend for the fourth time. All these arguments suggest that, in the medium term, one should expect a drop or a consolidation.

The stock market’s condition does not bode well for Bitcoin rising to $25,000-40,000.

BTC

Bitcoin presents the opposite picture. Looking at the higher timeframes, a number of bullish factors can be identified.

Historically, volume surges of about 500,000 BTC occur on average twice a year and are either chart extremes or significant stopping points. In the last six months there have already been two such surges, and the price has not yet fully absorbed their volumes.

A weekly-timeframe divergence also indicates a likely move above $20,000 in the near term.

Evaluating the chart on medium and smaller timeframes, price movement should be seen as sideways accumulation with upside potential.

A positive argument for growth is that the price took both BoS levels, locally breaking the downward structure and moving into a range.

Sentiment analysis remains in favour of a rise, as the majority of bloggers-analysts and paid Telegram channels continue to short or wait for a decline.

Conclusions

Volatility typically declines during holidays. Do not expect major moves from the first cryptocurrency until the end of 2022.

In the medium term, a rise to $25,000-40,000 can be expected within a correction. Building a Bitcoin position now is not a bad idea, but given the stock-market situation, at least 20% should remain in stablecoins.

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