Trader flags a possible range for Bitcoin’s price decline to pause.

The current market situation is explained by a practising trader and founder of the project Crypto Shaman Vadim Shovkun.

In the previous overview, the discussion was about a local rebound, but mid-term it was clear about Bitcoin’s serious weakness. The $40,000 support has been breached, and the price has successfully settled below it. The structure of the bullish trend is broken, and one can only assess the areas from which a bounce may form.

First, this reflects the state of traditional markets, since pressure on cryptocurrency comes from there (the assessment is based on the S&P 500 chart). The engulfing of the last up-move, which began in December, formed a Lower Low. The level of $4,276 will soon be reached, which would break the bullish structure on the daily and weekly timeframes. The previous weekly candle closed with a drop of more than 5%, something not seen in a year and a half, indicating the sellers’ attack angle is high.

Bitcoin’s price has now reached the area of the summer three-month consolidation and is near PoC.

Volumes at the moment are elevated but not abnormal, not preventing. The RSI on the daily timeframe is already in oversold territory, but there is still room to move lower. Overall seller aggression is increasing — the attack angle is becoming steeper.

The $19,000–$30,000 area is a volume vacuum; there is no liquidity there. In the event of a further sharp decline in the S&P 500, Bitcoin would have nothing to cling to in an impulsive move down to $19,000.

The main expectation now is to recapture the summer low and return to $30,000, trading in this area with possible rallies above. The range $26,700–$28,200 could be precisely the area that serves as a temporary pause after the culmination of selling.

Liquidity beneath the summer consolidation will be gathered, but entering the vacuum area remains modest. The market is in a bear phase, and the chance that Bitcoin will start climbing to an all-time high in the coming months is very small.

For now, trading mainly on the spot is advised. A sharp break below $30,000 could lead to exchanges stalling, as in March 2020. Traders should consider that limit orders and stop losses may not fire, so risk should be reduced.

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