Analysts Warn of Bitcoin’s Potential Drop to $60,000 Due to Fed Policy

Bitcoin may remain in the $60,000-$80,000 range if the Fed doesn't cut rates.

Digital gold may remain “stuck” in the $60,000-$80,000 range until the end of the year if the Fed refrains from cutting the key rate in December. This conclusion was reached by analysts at XWIN Research.

Bitcoin Range Outlook if the Fed Does Not Cut Rates in December

“If the Fed does not cut in December, Bitcoin likely trades between 60,000 and 80,000 dollars into year-end.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/u4gNtzIrhM

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 20, 2025

Experts have described the upcoming regulator meeting as one of the most uncertain in recent years. Due to the recent shutdown, the US government was unable to publish labor market reports, depriving the Fed of comprehensive data for decision-making. Against this backdrop, expectations for rate cuts have weakened, and there is no consensus among the officials themselves.

Maintaining the rate at its current level would mean low market liquidity and low interest in risky assets. During periods of tight monetary policy, investors typically use leverage less actively.

On the other hand, cryptocurrency exchanges have accumulated record reserves of stablecoins amounting to $72 billion. Analysts noted that a similar situation preceded all major rallies of the leading cryptocurrency in 2025. This indicates the presence of pent-up demand.

Thus, the potential for price decline is limited by the vast volume of “stable coins” ready for purchase. However, further growth is constrained by the macroeconomic situation, which prevents this capital from entering the market, concluded XWIN Research.

What About Ethereum?

The price of Ethereum tested a key support level around $2800. Historically, this mark has served as the bottom of market cycles, signaling potential recovery. This was highlighted by an analyst under the pseudonym MAC_D46035.

ETH $2.8K as a Key On-Chain Support Level, Signals Potential Rebound

“Historically, realized price levels have often marked cycle bottoms, suggesting that this range could once again provide a foundation for a short-term rebound.” – By @MAC_D46035 pic.twitter.com/vF2JUnJggE

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 20, 2025

According to him, the realized price often serves as support.

At the time of writing, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is trading around $3000.

In November, analysts at Glassnode stated that the risk of the market entering a bearish phase would arise if the price of the leading cryptocurrency consolidates below key on-chain indicators.